With just over two weeks left until the election, the gap between the government side and the opposition has narrowed significantly. The Moderates are gaining ground while the Social Democrats are losing support.

The Tidö parties are making significant headway towards the opposition in the latest opinion poll from Indikator Opinion, conducted on behalf of Ekot.

According to Sveriges Radio, the Social Democrats, Left Party, Centre Party, and Green Party together get 51.3 percent. The Tidö parties—Moderates (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L)—collect 46.6 percent.

The difference between the sides is therefore 4.7 percentage points.

This marks a major change compared to Indikator’s June poll. Back then, the opposition held just under 54 percent, and the Tidö side just under 45 percent—a gap of almost nine percentage points. The June poll also showed the Moderates at 17.7 percent and the Social Democrats at 32.7 percent.

M Gains – S Declines

The clearest shift since June comes from the Moderates and Social Democrats. The Moderates increase by 1.2 percentage points to 18.9 percent, while the Social Democrats drop by the same amount to 31.3 percent. The Sweden Democrats reach 19.7 percent, thus remaining larger than the Moderates.

According to reports, Indikator’s opinion chief Per Oleskog Tryggvason points to a more optimistic view of the economy as a possible explanation for the shift. Voters now have a more positive outlook on both their personal finances and Sweden’s economy.

L Still Below the Threshold

The main problem for the Tidö side continues to be the Liberals. With 2.2 percent, the party sits well below the parliamentary threshold of four percent. If the poll’s national figures are simply translated into Riksdag seats and L falls below the threshold, the opposition would get around 187 seats, while SD, M, and KD together would get about 162.

175 seats are needed for an absolute majority.

However, the seat calculation is only an estimate. The actual seat distribution is also affected by how the votes are divided among the country’s constituencies.

Nonetheless, the poll means that the election campaign is entering its final phase with a much closer opinion situation than before the summer. Early voting starts today and ends on election day, September 13.