The total area burned worldwide during the first half of 2026 is at its lowest level since :censored:6:cdd6bbaa89: satellite measurements began. This is highlighted by Danish political scientist Bjørn Lomborg, who simultaneously accuses the media of providing a misleading picture by mainly reporting when extensive fires are ongoing.

But the comparison has faced objections. The EU’s two fire monitoring systems actually paint different pictures of developments in Europe. While the :censored:6:cdd6bbaa89: database GWIS shows record-low levels, the EU’s more detailed European statistics from EFFIS are above the seasonal average.

In a thread on X, Lomborg refers to statistics from the EU Commission’s Global Wildfire Information System, GWIS. According to him, less land burned :censored:6:cdd6bbaa89:ly in the first half of the year than during the corresponding period in any other year in the comparable series.

According to the compilation, all continents were below their historical averages. Africa, North and South America, and Europe were also reported to be at record-low levels. For Europe, Lomborg claimed that the burned area was the lowest since the comparison period started in 2012.

– The media only show when things are burning, which leaves us poorly informed about climate change, wrote Lomborg.

Second Lowest Global Level in 2025

Lomborg also points out that 2025 ended with the second-lowest :censored:6:cdd6bbaa89: proportion of burned land in the available satellite series. According to his summary, 2.198 percent of the Earth’s land surface burned during the year, compared to a record-low 2.169 percent in 2022.

The data comes from the Terra and Aqua satellites and NASA’s :censored:6:cdd6bbaa89: product MCD64A1. The system combines reflectance measurements from MODIS with observations of active fires and maps burned areas in cells with a resolution of 500 meters.

It is not in itself disputed that the :censored:6:cdd6bbaa89: burned area has decreased. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has previously stated that the total area burning worldwide has decreased over recent decades, mainly due to fewer fires in grasslands and savannas. At the same time, the IPCC assesses that climate change is becoming increasingly important for fire conditions and may increase both the risk and severity in certain forest and ecosystem types. The IPCC’s conclusion thus encompasses both developments simultaneously.

Africa accounts for a significant share of the :censored:6:cdd6bbaa89: decline. A scientific review of developments over the past two decades estimates that the :censored:6:cdd6bbaa89:ly burned area has decreased by about 27 percent, largely as a result of fewer savanna fires in Africa. This means that a decline in the :censored:6:cdd6bbaa89: total does not necessarily say how extreme forest fires are developing in, for example, North America or the Mediterranean region.

Objection: EU System Shows Above-Average

Lomborg’s description of Europe has also been questioned with reference to the EU Commission’s other fire database, the European Forest Fire Information System, EFFIS.

The account La petite histoire du climat pointed out that the statistics “change direction” depending on which of the EU’s databases is used. GWIS shows a burned area below average for Europe, while EFFIS statistics for EU countries show that 2026 so far is above the average for the period 2006–2025.

Another critic published charts from EFFIS showing that both the total burned area, the number of registered fires, and the cumulative severity of fires were above average at the start of July. However, the levels still remained within the broad historical min–max interval.

The difference is at least partly because the systems use different geographic boundaries, comparison periods, resolutions, and methods. EFFIS is specifically developed for Europe and uses both MODIS images and higher-resolution Sentinel-2 images. Fires are mapped through a partly automated process and then visually checked. The EU Commission itself warns that results should be cautiously compared with statistics compiled using other methods and boundaries. According to EFFIS, the system is estimated to cover about 95 percent of the area burned within the EU.

As recently as March, EFFIS reported that 2025 was the worst fire year in the EU since the measurement series began in 2006. A total of just over 1.07 million hectares burned in member states, almost twice as much as the average for 2006–2024. The EU Commission’s research center JRC simultaneously emphasized that the fire season started earlier and intensified during the summer heatwaves.

Lomborg’s main point – that the :censored:6:cdd6bbaa89:ly burned area so far is unusually low – is thus supported by the :censored:6:cdd6bbaa89: statistics he refers to. However, the conclusion about Europe depends on which database and geographical boundaries are used. The statistics also do not contradict the fact that certain types of severe forest fires may increase even as the total area burned :censored:6:cdd6bbaa89:ly decreases.