Tech billionaire Elon Musk has once again voiced his support for French opposition leader Marine Le Pen. In a post on X, Musk wrote that Le Pen is “France’s last hope” after sharing a post referencing her rising poll numbers ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

The statement has sparked strong reactions in France. Several political opponents accuse Musk of trying to influence the French election campaign, while former EU Commissioner Thierry Breton called on authorities to ensure that X’s algorithms do not favor any one candidate.

This is not the first time Musk has expressed support for Le Pen. Already after the first verdict against her in the spring of 2025, he said he hoped she would be able to run in the presidential election and described the legal proceedings as politically motivated.

Marine Le Pen, the leading figure for the anti-immigration party Rassemblement National, long faced the risk of being barred from the presidential election after being convicted of alleged embezzlement of EU funds.

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However, at the beginning of July, the court of appeals delivered its decision. The conviction for embezzlement was upheld but the penalty was changed. Le Pen was sentenced to three years in prison, of which two are suspended and one is to be served under special conditions, while her ban on business and holding office was shortened to 45 months, of which 30 months are suspended.

This means that the effective sentence is considered already served, making her eligible to run in the 2027 presidential election. Le Pen has announced, however, that she will appeal the judgment to France’s highest court.

Leading in the polls

The French presidential election will be held in the spring of 2027, and according to the constitution, incumbent president Emmanuel Macron cannot run for a third term.

The majority of current opinion polls put Marine Le Pen in the lead for the first round, while Rassemblement National is the country’s largest single party in the National Assembly. The question remains whether the legal process will affect the election campaign or voters’ confidence.

Musk has previously supported AfD

In recent years, Elon Musk has become increasingly active in European politics. Ahead of the German federal election, he openly expressed his support for Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which he described as the only party that could “save Germany.”

Musk has repeatedly argued that Europe is in a deep crisis, highlighting high migration, increased crime, restrictions on freedom of speech, and weak economic development as some of the main issues.

He has also criticized several European governments and EU institutions for what he describes as censorship and overregulation.

AfD leader Alice Weidel. Photo: Sandro Halank. CC BY-SA 4.0

Immigration has transformed France

For several decades, immigration has been one of the most hotly debated issues in French politics. After World War II, France recruited labor mainly from southern Europe and its then-colonies to meet the needs of a rapidly growing industry. During the 1950s, 60s, and 70s, large groups arrived from Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, along with immigrants from Portugal, Spain, and Italy.

Since then, immigration has increasingly been dominated by people from North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East, while family reunification and asylum migration have become more significant.

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The largest immigrant groups in France have their roots in Algeria, Morocco, Portugal, Tunisia, Italy, and Turkey. In recent years, immigration from sub-Saharan African countries has also increased.

The largest immigrant populations are found in and around the Paris region (Île-de-France), as well as in major cities such as Marseille, Lyon, Lille, Toulouse, and Strasbourg.

One of the top issues for voters

Recent opinion polls show that immigration, security, and crime fighting are among the top issues for French voters. At the same time, a considerable proportion believe that immigration levels are too high and that integration is not working well, while others emphasize the economic and demographic importance of immigration.

Crime, riots in the suburbs, and recurring terrorist attacks have increased the focus on immigration in political debate.

Marine Le Pen and Rassemblement National have long advocated for sharply reduced immigration, stricter border controls, and tougher action against crime—positions which, according to several polls, have helped boost the party’s voter support in recent years.

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