Ukraine risks gradually losing the war against Russia unless it rapidly changes both its military strategy and the way the state functions. This warning comes from the recently dismissed Defense Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov. According to him, Kyiv only has a few months to make crucial decisions that could change the course of events.

Ukraine still has every opportunity to win the war, but the development is currently moving in the wrong direction. That is what former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov says in an interview with the news agency Reuters.

“I think we are now at a turning point that will determine our future development. But it looks as though we are gradually, slowly, beginning to lose,” says Fedorov.

His statement is in clear contrast to the Ukrainian government’s official message about the progress of the war. According to Fedorov, Ukraine lacks an overall vision of how to win the war and the country has failed to implement technological innovations quickly enough in practice.

He also points to corruption, informal networks of loyalty, and a lack of political independence within the state apparatus as obstacles to the war effort.

President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office has struck back at the criticism, noting that Fedorov spoke positively about the war effort when he was Defense Minister himself. The only thing that has changed since then, they suggest, is his own position, according to the president’s administration.

Russian Forces Continue Advancing

Fedorov’s warning comes at a militarily challenging time for Ukraine. Russia continues to advance slowly in Donbass, even if the territorial gains are smaller than last year. Meanwhile, Ukrainian factories and warehouses are subjected to extensive Russian missile attacks.

A particular problem is the shortage of air defense missiles. Russia fires dozens of ballistic missiles at Ukrainian targets every month, and in many cases Ukraine lacks the capacity to shoot them down.

Manning along the front is also an issue. According to Reuters, many of Ukraine’s thinly manned frontline positions are primarily held by mobilized soldiers with low motivation.

At the same time, Ukraine has intensified its own long-range attacks on targets inside Russia. Drones and missiles have struck key military factories and caused significant damage to Russian oil refineries, which in turn has contributed to fuel shortages.

Despite the problems, Ukrainians’ belief in eventual victory still seems strong. An opinion poll from late July showed that 82 percent believed Ukraine will win, although most expected the fighting to continue at least into 2027.

Want to Change How the War Is Fought

Fedorov believes there is still time to turn things around—but that the window of opportunity could quickly disappear. He points especially to technical solutions. According to him, Ukraine needs to invest much more in autonomous drones controlled by artificial intelligence, cheap air defense missiles, and its own program for ballistic missiles.

Much of the technology is already being developed by Ukrainian companies. The problem, according to Fedorov, is the lack of a coherent strategy for how to use it.

His vision is a front where electronic sensors detect Russian units and where drones in the air and on land carry out a much larger share of the work. That way, the need for Ukrainian soldiers in the most exposed positions could be reduced.

“There is already technology that could completely stop the Russians, but because we lack a vision, we’re not using it,” he says.

Fedorov also claims that the Ukrainian state apparatus operates at only about “five percent efficiency.”

A Few Months of Opportunity

The former Defense Minister especially highlights Ukraine’s campaign of long-range attacks on Russian fuel supply and military logistics. Fedorov claims to have been one of the driving forces behind this year’s offensive against Russian logistics in the occupied parts of southern Ukraine. The aim has, among other things, been to impede the supply to Russian frontline forces and increase the isolation of the occupied Crimea.

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But even here, time is running out, according to Fedorov. In his view, Ukraine has a window of just a few months before Russia has time to adapt and develop effective countermeasures. He therefore believes Kyiv must quickly unite its technological and military efforts into a single strategy.

Open Conflict With Zelensky

Fedorov’s comments come as the conflict between him and President Zelensky has become increasingly public. The 35-year-old Fedorov was dismissed after only half a year as Defense Minister. During his short tenure, he pushed for reforms in procurement and mobilization, changes that led to conflicts with both parts of the military leadership and political opponents.

Now another conflict has arisen over the Defense Ministry’s finances. Zelensky has claimed that Fedorov’s decision to bring forward defense spending has left a gap of about $27 billion in the budget. Fedorov refutes this suggestion and says that the plan during his tenure would instead have resulted in a funding need of about $5 billion by year’s end.

“We knew where we would get that money from,” he says, adding that the plans may have changed since he left the ministry.

Fedorov also claims he discovered upon taking office that senior officials in the Defense Ministry had been appointed due to pressure from Ukrainian defense companies to serve their interests.

Called for Elections Despite the War

The conflict with Zelensky now also concerns Ukraine’s political governance. Last week, Fedorov became the first truly prominent Ukrainian politician to demand that the country find a way to resume the democratic electoral process despite the war. At the same time, he described Ukraine’s issues as a “systemic” governance crisis.

Ukraine has been under martial law since the Russian invasion in February 2022. As long as that remains, national elections are technically not allowed.

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Zelensky reacted strongly to Fedorov’s proposal and warned that an election in the middle of the war could create political divisions that in the worst case could “destroy” the country. The president also hinted that outside forces could be behind Fedorov’s statement—something the former minister strongly denies.

Fedorov admits the practical and security-related problems with an election during wartime are enormous, but believes Ukraine must try to find new solutions. He has previously argued that Russia’s ongoing war must not mean that President Vladimir Putin indirectly gets to decide when Ukrainians can next elect their government.

At the same time, opinion polls have consistently shown weak public interest in holding elections while the war continues. Fedorov is not yet ready to say whether he intends to run for president himself.

“Every Opportunity to Win”

Despite the bleak assessment, Fedorov says he does not view Ukrainian defeat as inevitable. According to him, Ukraine still has “every opportunity” to win. But it requires that the country soon decides how the war should actually be fought and brought to a conclusion.

For Fedorov, it’s about both military technology and how the state operates. Corruption, inefficiency, and political loyalty are, according to him, not just domestic problems during a war. They directly affect Ukraine’s ability to resist Russia.

His conclusion is therefore that the time for incremental changes is running out. The decisions made over the coming months, according to the former Defense Minister, could determine in which direction the war develops.