In recent years, media, politicians, and security authorities have repeatedly warned about Russian information influence in Sweden. But just months before the election, the Swedish Psychological Defence Agency (MPF) currently assesses that there are no clear signs that Sweden is a prioritized target for Russian actors. At the same time, the agency points out that Russia is keen on using the immigration debate to influence Swedes.
Improper information influence, according to the MPF, refers to activities by foreign actors aiming to shape people’s perceptions, decisions, or behaviors in ways that could harm society. The goal is often to create division, weaken trust, and increase conflicts.
Psychological defence is described as society’s ability to detect, understand, and withstand such influence. While warnings have been repeatedly raised in established media as well as by politicians and security agencies, the MPF in its own assessment downplays the current situation.
“Our overall assessment right now is that Sweden is not in focus for that kind of influence related to the election,” says Jerker Sundstrand, project manager for the agency’s election work, to TT.
According to the MPF, the extent of what the authority regards as improper information campaigns against Sweden has declined compared to previous years. Activity used to be higher in connection with, among other things, Sweden’s NATO application and entry into the alliance. At the same time, the agency warns that the situation can change rapidly.
The Psychological Defence Agency also emphasizes that Russia’s main interest in Europe is to influence support for Ukraine. Critical voices against the extensive financial support for Ukraine are, in this context, often described as part of Russian influence.
At the same time, the MPF notes that Sweden is a less attractive target, since there is broad political consensus on continued support for Ukraine regardless of any change in government.
“In practice, it makes little difference to Russia who governs Sweden, since support for Ukraine is strong across party lines,” Sundstrand tells TT.
He also describes how information influence often seeks more than directly swaying election results. One aim may be to create distrust in the electoral process itself by spreading claims of election fraud or through various types of smear campaigns against politicians and parties.
Another purpose highlighted by the agency is to influence public opinion and deepen divisions in society. This is done through bot networks and fake accounts to amplify conflicts and make public debate appear more polarized.
The Immigration Debate Highlighted
The news agency TT also notes that the Psychological Defence Agency believes that foreign actors may use topics such as immigration and crime in Sweden to try to influence the public debate.
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“If the social climate becomes more conflict-ridden and polarized, that is seen as a success for Russia,” Sundstrand argues, noting that this is happening in Sweden but is not linked to the election campaign.
According to the agency, this may also contribute to creating the impression that societal problems and criticism of developments are themselves the result of a coordinated influence operation.
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