No Abolition of Volume Discounts for Criminals if the Social Democrats Have Their Say

With just over a month left until the election, the Swedish parliament faces a vote on the government’s and the Sweden Democrats’ major criminal law reform, which among other things includes the abolition of the so-called volume discount for crimes. However, it may be difficult to pass, as the opposition prefers the status quo and wants to continue offering reduced sentences for multiple offenses.

This has become one of the election campaign’s most heated legal policy battles. On Thursday, parliament will vote on the government’s comprehensive criminal law reform, where one of the most debated parts is the proposal to abolish the current volume discount for multiple crimes.

The government wants each crime to carry significantly more weight when the aggregate sentence is determined. Today, the first or most serious crime carries the most significance, while the sentence for additional crimes is progressively reduced. The government’s model means that, as a rule, the three most serious crimes should each be counted at their full value.

The Tidö parties have made this reform a central part of their criminal policy. The government has described it as the largest overhaul of Sweden’s sentencing system since the introduction of the Criminal Code and claims that the current system leads to sentences that do not sufficiently reflect the seriousness of accumulated criminality. The reform is expected to result in more and longer prison sentences.

But ahead of Thursday’s vote, government support is not guaranteed. The Social Democrats and other opposition parties are trying to stop the proposal through a joint reservation. S’s justice spokesperson Teresa Carvalho describes the situation as very tight.

Hoping for the Liberals

The opposition hopes that some Liberal MPs will choose to vote against the government line. The issue may be especially sensitive for the Liberal Party, partly because the party was earlier this summer caught in a similar situation regarding the government’s proposal for prison sentences for 13-year-olds.

That proposal was withdrawn after several Liberal MPs were reportedly planning to vote no. The opposition now hopes for a repeat. However, Liberal Party leader Simona Mohamsson says she is calm ahead of the vote and has not asked all MPs exactly how they intend to vote.

Since the parliament’s pairing system will not apply to this vote, absences can also become significant. A sick or absent MP could therefore affect the result in this closely contested situation.

S has its own proposal

The Social Democrats say they also want to reduce or abolish the volume discount but oppose the government’s broad model. Instead, S wants to prioritize certain categories of crime, including sexual offenses, and links the issue to the expansion of the Prison and Probation Service.

The party argues that the government’s reform risks causing a sharp increase in the number of people sentenced to prison without enough places available.

This is a relatively new political position. S announced its current direction on August 7, just days before the upcoming vote.

Prison Capacity a Central Issue

The opposition has made the Prison and Probation Service’s capacity one of its most important arguments against the government reform. The government is aware that overhauling the sentencing system will require a major expansion of the prison system.

In April, the government described the reform as part of a broader change, where more and longer prison sentences are to be implemented in pace with the expansion of the agency’s capacity. The government’s July proposal therefore states that the reform should be implemented as the Prison and Probation Service expands and is able to house more inmates.

This is exactly what the Social Democrats are questioning. The party wants to build more prisons and detention centers faster, and has at the same time argued that sentencing reforms must go hand in hand with actual capacity in the Prison and Probation Service. S’s own correctional policy, most recently updated on April 27, is based on a significant expansion of available places.

Moderates Promise Continued Tough Line

The Moderates have meanwhile escalated the issue ahead of the election. The party has promised that the volume discount will be completely abolished by 2030 at the latest. That announcement came last week and is thus more recent than several of the earlier statements that have shaped the debate this spring and early summer.

The Moderates maintain that the current arrangement must be replaced by a system where repeated criminality is given considerably more weight in sentencing.

For the government, Thursday’s vote is therefore not just about a technical change to sentencing. A defeat would constitute a political setback for one of the Tidö parties’ flagship criminal policy reforms.

At the same time, a possible no vote does not automatically mean that the volume discount will remain forever. The Social Democrats themselves have opened the door for changes, but want to take a different path than the government.

Thus, it is the government’s model, rather than the very principle that volume discounts can be changed, that is at the heart of Thursday’s dramatic vote. With an uncertain majority, a few absent or dissenting parliamentarians—especially from the Liberals—may ultimately decide the outcome.