EU Countries Are Running Out of Air Defense Systems

For nearly five years, Europe has been sending weapons to Ukraine, and now stockpiles are running low. At the same time, the need for air defense is increasing ahead of winter, when Russia is expected to ramp up its missile attacks. Ukraine needs more Patriot missiles, but the systems quickly become targets when deployed. Germany, one of Ukraine’s most important supporters, now says the country is reaching the limit of what it can send without jeopardizing its own defense.

Ukraine needs hundreds of Patriot missiles to strengthen its air defenses ahead of an expected Russian winter offensive. But as demand rises in Europe, the market is simultaneously being squeezed from another direction.

The war involving the US, Israel, and Iran has significantly increased the need for air defense in the Middle East, where several countries in the region have also been subjected to attacks. The result is growing competition for a limited number of missiles.

Several European countries have sent large amounts of military support to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began, but their own stockpiles have shrunk at the same time. Now governments must weigh Ukraine’s urgent needs against the requirement to be able to defend their own countries and meet their NATO commitments.

Ukraine primarily needs PAC-3 and PAC-2 missiles for the Patriot system. These are some of the few weapons capable of stopping the ballistic missiles Russia regularly fires at Ukraine.

Other air defense systems can be used against, among other things, drones and cruise missiles, often at a lower cost, but they are not as effective a response to ballistic threats.

Ukraine’s former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov recently described the discrepancy between the need and the actual support coming in.

“In recent months, Russia has launched more missiles at us in a week than we receive from our partners over several months,” he said last week.

Germany Has Begun Reaching Its Limit

Germany has been one of Ukraine’s main European military supporters and has already transferred both Patriot systems and missiles. But the German defense ministry must at the same time ensure that its own defense capability is not undermined.

The country needs to maintain sufficient stocks for its own air defense and to fulfill its NATO obligations. This means the German government can no longer see its own stockpiles as an unlimited source of additional support.

After the NATO summit in Ankara in July, Brigadier General Jürgen Schrödl, a senior official at the German defense ministry, described the situation as increasingly pressured.

“We really are reaching our limits here,” he said at a meeting in Berlin, and continued:

“We also have to ensure our own protection.”

Patriot. Photo: Astrid Amtén Skage/Forsvarsmakten

Germany and several northern European countries have therefore begun turning to other EU countries to urge them to examine what military resources and financial means can still be freed up for Ukraine.

For several countries, however, it is a difficult balancing act. The states nearest to Russia themselves have a strong need for air defense and are often less likely to hand over the remaining Patriot missiles they have.

Norway: “Not Sustainable”

Norwegian Defense Minister Tore O. Sandvik believes the responsibility can no longer rest on a limited number of countries.

“I don’t think it’s sustainable for Europe in the long run,” he told Politico. POLITICO.

The US Also Lacks Missiles

At the same time, the shortage of Patriots in Europe cannot be solved without taking the US into account. Most PAC-3 missiles are manufactured in the US, making the American administration crucial for both sales and future production deals.

When Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky met US President Donald Trump last month, Patriot missiles were one of the key issues on the table. According to a senior Ukrainian official with insight into the talks, the Patriot missiles were the central topic at the meeting.

At the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump initially raised hopes that Ukraine would be able to produce US-developed Patriot missiles under license. In the longer term, such a solution could reduce Ukraine’s dependence on US supplies while giving the country the opportunity to build a more independent supply chain.

But it would not have any immediate effect. US NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker said after the summit that a production agreement could not solve the situation ahead of the winter.

A Ukrainian official familiar with the discussions told Politico that the US’s role is decisive.

“Everything depends on the US, and the lack of political will to help affects everyone else. The American administration could have helped, but they are not doing so. And as a result, it has been difficult with everyone else.”