Is a Vote for Allard Wasted? Yes – and No

EDITORIAL • Those who want to see Markus Allard in the Swedish Parliament should first check where they live. The Örebro Party’s path to Stockholm goes through a nearly 60-year-old safety valve in the Swedish electoral system that has never before been used in practice. Maybe it’s time now. And if Allard falls at the finish line, there may be reason to ask whether the valve’s spring is wound so tightly that it doesn’t work—and whether that was the intention all along.

Is a parliamentary vote for Markus Allard and the Örebro Party a wasted vote? The question is frequently asked, but the answers seem more about people’s preferences than anything else. There also appears to be some confusion over which ballot the 12 percent threshold applies to, and which votes count geographically.

For those living in Örebro County’s electoral district—which includes, in addition to the city of Örebro, 11 other municipalities—the same vote can have an impact it doesn’t have anywhere else in Sweden. The Örebro Party isn’t primarily aiming for the national four percent threshold—that chance is slim. Instead, their path to parliament is the lesser-known 12 percent rule—a greater opportunity.

A party that wins at least 12 percent of the votes in a parliamentary constituency gets to participate in the allocation of fixed seats there, even if it falls below four percent nationwide. This rule is written into the Instrument of Government and confirmed by parliament itself.

For the Örebro Party, this means 12 percent in the parliamentary election in Örebro County’s constituency—the yellow ballot, not 12 percent in the municipal election in Örebro, nor 12 percent in the regional election. Most importantly—it’s not just about those living in Örebro Municipality, but everyone in the entire county.

The constituency consists of the county’s twelve municipalities: Örebro, Karlskoga, Lindesberg, Kumla, Hallsberg, Askersund, Nora, Degerfors, Lekeberg, Laxå, Hällefors, and Ljusnarsberg. With a normal voter turnout, the 12 percent threshold corresponds to about 24,000 parliamentary votes across the county, the entire constituency. That’s where Allard’s opportunity lies.

The Man Who Wasn’t Supposed to Work—But Does

In many ways, Markus Allard is an unlikely candidate for Sweden’s parliament. His political past is far to the left. His current politics are much harder to place on the traditional left-right scale. And his political style is about as far from the prim and proper parliamentary language as one can get.

He is blunt, confrontational, and at times deliberately provocative. When Swedish Television (SVT) recently visited Örebro for an interview, the journalists, among other things, were told that they belong to “the clique,” and that the language in Stockholm’s SVT corridors differs from that spoken in the nation’s staff rooms and construction trailers. This has earned him plenty of critics far from Örebro. The problem for his critics is that locals don’t seem to listen.

Markus Allard, Örebro Party, and the Parliament. Photo: Örebro Party and Jonas Andersson

In the 2022 municipal election, the Örebro Party received 7.9 percent and five seats in Örebro municipality. At the same time, they entered the regional council with three seats. Since then, things have moved quickly. In a Novus poll for Nerikes Allehanda in May of this year, the party garnered 18.4 percent in Örebro municipality, becoming the second-largest party after the Social Democrats.

People are free to have their opinions about Allard’s political background and style. But clearly, neither has served as an effective deterrent at home. It remains to be seen whether the same applies to the rest of the municipalities in Örebro County. There are no measurements that allow for an informed guess on that point.

Breath of Fresh Air or Disruption?

What Markus Allard could actually accomplish alone in parliament is another matter. A mandate is a mandate. He wouldn’t be able to march into the Riksdag and start implementing the Örebro Party’s policies.

In a tightly balanced parliament, a single representative can suddenly have significant influence as a swing voter, but just as easily, he could spend the term with little impact on decisions but a strong presence in debates and newspaper headlines.

There is, however, another value in a potential parliamentary entry for the Örebro Party. Some would see Allard as a breath of fresh air in a parliament where the language and conduct of politics have become increasingly professionalized. Others would see him as a disruptive force causing noise.

But a parliament is not designed to shield itself from disturbances. It exists to represent voters. That’s why the negative reflex often triggered when a local or regional party starts discussing the 12 percent rule is worth reflecting upon.

Why would it be a democratic problem if tens of thousands of voters in one part of Sweden succeed in sending their own representative to Stockholm? A more reasonable democratic reflex would be the opposite.

A Safety Valve Never Opened

That is precisely why the 12 percent rule exists. When the old bicameral parliament was abolished and Sweden transitioned to a unicameral parliament, the electoral system was fundamentally changed. Previously, there was no national percentage threshold as we know it today. A smaller party with strong local support could win representation by being large enough in a particular district.

With the unicameral parliament came the four percent threshold. The intent was partly to avoid excessive party fragmentation that could complicate government formation. But lawmakers also recognized the problem: by closing the door to small parties nationally, they risked shutting out strong regional sentiments.

Thus, a safety valve was created—a party that doesn’t reach four percent nationwide can still participate in the allocation of seats in a constituency where it reaches at least twelve percent. The principle has existed since the 1968 constitutional reform.

The strange thing is that no one has ever managed to use it. The Christian Democrats, then known as KDS, came close in Jönköping County in 1988 with just over ten percent. The Norrbotten Party reached 9.1 percent in Norrbotten in 2002. The Sweden Democrats also had strong regional bases before they crossed the four percent national threshold in 2010.

The fact that no one has succeeded in almost 60 years can be used as an argument that the Örebro Party’s chances are also slim. But the argument can just as easily be turned on its head. If a democratic safety valve exists for almost six decades without being used even once, it’s at least reasonable to wonder whether the valve is designed to work or merely exists for show.

Allard’s Problem Lies Outside Örebro but Within the County

And here’s where the math gets interesting, without being unnecessarily complicated. The Örebro Party has already shown it can become very large in Örebro Municipality. The Novus poll’s 18.4 percent is more than double the 2022 election result.

But Örebro Municipality is only just over half the constituency. The rest of the county must also come along.

For example, if the Örebro Party were to actually receive 18.4 percent on the yellow ballot in Örebro Municipality, the city would account for about 54 percent of the voter base, and the other eleven municipalities together about 46 percent.

Allard then wouldn’t need 18 percent in Karlskoga, Kumla, Lindesberg, Hallsberg, and the rest of the county. An average of about 4.5 percent in the other eleven municipalities would suffice so that the Örebro Municipality figure doesn’t get diluted to the point where the party falls below 12 percent overall in the constituency.

That suddenly doesn’t sound entirely impossible. But it also shows why observers are being cautious.

There are no reliable opinion polls showing how strong the Örebro Party is in each of the eleven other municipalities. And voters don’t necessarily vote the same way in municipal, regional, and parliamentary elections. Historically, many voters who are happy to cast a local protest vote return to one of the established parties when they have the yellow ballot in hand.

SVT and Verian’s polls have also shown the “other parties” category at between 3.5 and 6 percent in Örebro County over the past few months. That includes the Örebro Party, but also other small parties. So, there are reasons not to start measuring out Allard’s office in the parliament building just yet, but also to be ready for the possibility.

History vs Momentum

This is also why opinions about the Örebro Party’s chances are divided. The pessimists have history on their side: no one has done this before. Twelve percent is a lot for a party without national parliamentary representation, and the Örebro Party’s strongest base is still Örebro Municipality.

The optimists, on the other hand, have the current trend on their side. The Örebro Party is no longer an obscure municipal protest party with only a few seats. It also sits on the regional council and has already shown an ability to win votes outside its own local politics. And an increase from 7.9 percent in the election to 18.4 percent in a municipal opinion poll is hard to dismiss.

Additionally, Allard has something small local parties have rarely had—national attention and a large social media presence. That’s why two seemingly contradictory statements can both be true: it would be a sensation if the Örebro Party succeeded; and it’s not unthinkable anymore that it might.

If Allard Fails, the Threshold May Have Failed Too

You don’t have to like Markus Allard to hope that the 12 percent rule gets a chance to prove it actually means something. You don’t have to appreciate his political past. You don’t have to like his language. You don’t even have to want the Örebro Party’s policies enacted.

It’s enough to believe that a democratic system should have room for strong regional sentiments that aren’t organized through one of the established national parties. That was, after all, the entire point of the safety valve.

If the Örebro Party reaches 12 percent in Örebro County and Markus Allard takes a seat in parliament, some will cheer and others will worry. But for the Swedish electoral system, it would simultaneously be proof that a rule unused since the 1960s is actually more than just a fancy provision in the constitution.

And if the party were to have an exceptionally strong election but finish at, say, eleven or eleven-and-a-half percent, there is reason to ask a more uncomfortable question—is it then the Örebro Party that has failed, or the 12 percent rule?

A regional safety valve so tightly sealed that no one can open it eventually isn’t much of a safety valve at all. Then it might be time to loosen it a little.

Or the established parties could simply be honest and say that local and regional representation in parliament is, in fact, not particularly desired. That Stockholm would prefer to make decisions undisturbed.

Wasted or Not—Several Factors Decide

Whether a vote for the Örebro Party is considered wasted depends on several factors, the main one being whether you live in Örebro County’s constituency—whether your vote counts towards the 12 percent rule.

Other considerations concern principle and tactics. Should one always vote for the party with the best policies, regardless of its chances for parliamentary representation? Or should one vote for the next best alternative with a real chance of participating in government formation?

The state of the polls can also be important. If the Tidö Parties were cruising to an easy victory, it might not matter much to “waste” a vote on the Örebro Party. Likewise, if the battle seems already lost for the Tidö parties, a vote for Allard also doesn’t make much difference. In a close race at the end, however, your vote could swing the outcome.