Election Review Board on Suspicions of Electoral Fraud: "All Just Speculation"

The debate over a possible re-election has intensified following the ongoing investigation into suspected electoral fraud in Borlänge, where thousands of appeals have poured in. But there is still no decision on whether what has happened could lead to the election needing to be redone. The Election Review Board currently dismisses the claims as speculation—and a lot is required for a re-election to become relevant.

The chairman of the board, Supreme Court Justice Svante O Johansson, is cautious about drawing any conclusions before there is a completed investigation.

– I cannot comment on the speculation. Especially since we do not know what has happened. That is the problem here: it is all just speculation—all of it, he tells Dala-Demokraten.

The issue arose after thousands of appeals were submitted in connection with Left Party member Mohamed Abdukardir Ali being voted past a top V candidate and into parliament.

The discussion has since centered on the suspected electoral fraud in Borlänge, which is now being investigated by Noa within the Police Authority and the National Anti-Corruption Unit at the Prosecutor’s Office. The question many are asking is whether what is alleged to have happened could be serious enough to have affected the election result and, in turn, could lead to a re-election.

No such decision is, however, imminent according to the Election Review Board. Before the board can take a position, it first needs to investigate the circumstances.

When asked whether it is already possible to say when a possible re-election could become relevant, Svante O Johansson replies that an investigation must come first.

When does a re-election become relevant

A re-election is not decided solely because there have been irregularities or uncertainties in connection with an election. The Election Review Board must determine whether the legal requirements have been met.

It essentially involves two steps. First, the board must determine that there has been a deviation from the prescribed order for the election or that some form of undue influence has occurred. Thereafter, there must be grounds to believe that the incident also affected the election outcome.

The latter issue can, among other things, be analyzed using statistical sensitivity calculations from the Election Authority. Such analyses can show how many votes would have been needed, for example, for a mandate to have gone to a different party or candidate.

In the Borlänge case, a criminal investigation is ongoing at the same time. However, the Election Review Board’s work is a separate process, raising the question of whether the results of the ongoing criminal investigation will matter for the board’s assessment of what has actually happened.

Svante O Johansson emphasizes that the board makes its own assessment. This means that the Election Review Board does not need to wait for a criminal investigation to be able to assess itself whether there has been an error in connection with the election.

Re-elections Are Uncommon

It is unusual for a Swedish election to be redone, but there are several examples in modern times. Recent examples include the municipal elections in Falun in 2019 and Båstad in 2015. In the case of Falun 2019, a delayed mailbag meant that 145 ballots were not included in the original vote count.

The re-election there also illustrates why the question of how a potential irregularity affected the actual election outcome is central. It is not enough to establish that something went wrong; the board must also assess what impact the error may have had on the result.

The appeal period for this year’s election expires on September 29. Afterwards, the continued investigation of the Election Review Board will begin, where the incoming cases will be examined and reviewed. So far, more than 6,000 appeals have been submitted.