Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, EU member states’ defense policies have undergone the biggest transformation in modern times. Defense budgets have risen, NATO has expanded, and orders for the defense industry have surged. One of the major beneficiaries is Saab, whose stock—adjusted for the 2024 share split—has increased about 13-fold since the beginning of 2022, while the company’s sales and order book have grown significantly in the wake of militarization and Sweden’s NATO membership. As billion-krona orders keep rolling in, Jacob Wallenberg has warned that Europe is not prepared for peace. Now, Saab has secured yet another multi-billion deal.
The decision to join the military alliance NATO on March 7, 2024, was largely driven by the war in Ukraine and growing concerns about a potential Russian attack on other European countries. Meanwhile, the defense industry has been one of the sectors to benefit most from the new security situation.
At the same time, the decision was made without a referendum, after nearly 200 years of Swedish neutrality—even though Sweden has long engaged in extensive cooperation with NATO.
Notably, one of those who participated in the Swedish government’s preparatory meetings ahead of joining NATO was Jacob Wallenberg, one of the most powerful figures in the Wallenberg sphere and chairman of Investor. These meetings took place in 2022, the year Sweden applied for membership.
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Meanwhile, the defense giant Saab—with the Wallenberg sphere having decisive ownership influence via Investor—has seen dramatic growth following the new security situation. The company earns significant revenue from advanced weapons systems for land, sea, and air defense—systems which have been delivered to Ukraine and, after Sweden’s accession to NATO, are needed to bolster Sweden’s defense capabilities to alliance standards.
The newspaper Expressen has reported that Jacob Wallenberg took part in a high-level, closed-door NATO meeting in Helsinki, also attended by Sweden’s then-finance minister Mikael Damberg, Finland’s president, and Finnish business leaders.
After the meeting, Jacob Wallenberg spoke out publicly, arguing in favor of Swedish NATO membership, thus taking a clear position on the matter both towards the government and the public.
– The government’s decision to apply for membership is now welcomed by the Wallenberg family. We see it as positive that Sweden is applying for NATO membership and that there is broad political support behind the government’s decision and application.
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Meanwhile, several European governments and EU leaders have advocated for major investments in defense and the defense industry. They have warned that Russia could eventually threaten other European countries too, emphasizing that a stronger defense is required to deter future aggression.
Critics, however, argue that the growing militarization also brings enormous financial gains for the defense industry and its owners—at taxpayers’ expense.
One of the companies to benefit the most from Europe’s deteriorated security situation after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is Sweden’s Saab, majority-owned by Wallenberg-controlled Investor. As European countries and NATO have greatly increased their defense budgets, Saab has seen record growth in both sales and order bookings.
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Between 2023 and 2025, Saab’s revenue rose from 51.6 billion SEK to 79.1 billion SEK—an increase of just over 53 percent in two years.
At the same time, order intake reached record levels and the order book is now worth hundreds of billions of kronor, providing the company with work for many years to come.
Saab has become one of the big winners on the stock market under the new security situation. The surge in share price since early 2022 amounts to about 13 times, adjusted for the 1:4 stock split in May 2024.
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Meanwhile, the company has grown dramatically with soaring sales, record-high order intake, and a historically large order book. The growth is driven by increased demand for defense systems from Sweden, NATO countries, and other international customers.
The majority owner in Saab is Investor, the publicly listed investment company that is the cornerstone of the Wallenberg sphere. Investor owns about 30 percent of the capital and nearly 40 percent of the voting rights in Saab.
The Wallenberg Foundations are meanwhile the long-term dominant owners behind Investor through their holdings and control structure. Through Investor and other Wallenberg-related holdings, the family has significant influence over Saab and the company’s strategic development.
New Billion-Dollar Deal with NATO
At the end of May, Saab and Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M) announced that Ukraine will buy 20 Jas Gripen E/F fighter jets. This is in addition to Sweden donating 16 Jas Gripen C/D to the country.
– We are replacing the aircraft we donate with new jets for the Swedish Air Force, Kristersson announced at the press briefing.
Negotiations are also underway that could open the door for Ukraine to eventually seek up to 150 Jas Gripen from Saab.
Major Orders Are Pouring In
In addition to fighter jets, Saab has a strong position in naval defense systems. Through Saab Kockums, a subsidiary, the company develops and builds, among other things, submarines.
Poland has chosen Saab to supply three A26 submarines in a deal worth about SEK 47 billion. The deal is yet another multi-billion order that illustrates the surging demand for advanced European defense materiel. Saab is also a leading player in advanced surveillance and command systems.
The latest major success came when NATO announced that the alliance will choose Saab’s GlobalEye as its future airborne surveillance and command system (AEW&C), starting negotiations with Saab for the purchase of up to ten systems. GlobalEye is intended to replace parts of NATO’s aging AWACS capability.
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The program is estimated to be worth about USD 4.5 billion, equivalent to roughly SEK 44 billion. Each aircraft is projected to cost around USD 400–450 million depending on configuration, training, and support systems. If completed, the deal will be one of the biggest export successes in Saab’s history.
GlobalEye is based on the Bombardier Global 6500 business jet but equipped with Saab’s Erieye radar and sensors, able to detect and track targets in the air, at sea, and on land over vast areas. The system is used for air surveillance, fighter command, detection of cruise missiles and drones, as well as maritime monitoring.
NATO’s decision means Saab goes forward with GlobalEye as the future solution for the alliance’s airborne surveillance, after the US E-7 Wedgetail was previously considered as a replacement for the existing AWACS capability.
The deal, which puts Saab ahead of its American competitor Boeing, would likely not have been possible without Sweden’s membership in the military alliance.
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NATO has so far decided to begin negotiations with Saab, but no final contract has yet been signed.
New Jobs in Sweden
The rising demand is also bringing major positive effects for Swedish industry. In recent years, Saab has recruited thousands of new employees and continues expanding its operations in places like Linköping, Karlskoga, Gothenburg, Arboga, and Järfälla.
Subcontractors across the country are also receiving more assignments as the production of radar, missile, and sensor systems increases. For many municipalities, the defense industry’s growth means more jobs, increased tax revenues, and new investments.
Yet this development raises a key question. The defense industry’s business is based on states perceiving a need to invest in military capability. A deteriorating security situation therefore often means increased revenues for companies like Saab.
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This does not mean that companies cause conflicts or oppose peace. There is no evidence that Saab or the Wallenberg sphere would want to prolong the war in Ukraine for financial reasons.
But it is difficult to ignore that a prolonged, tense security situation in its fifth year now continues to create high demand for advanced weapons systems, surveillance aircraft, and other defense materiel. A spending spree of many billions. This means that economic interests and security policy in practice become closely intertwined.
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This is one of the central questions that democracies need to debate: How can we ensure that decisions on war, peace, and militarization are always made for the safety of citizens and countries—and not influenced by the massive economic interests that have arisen around the :censored:6:cdd6bbaa89: defense industry?
Not Ready for Peace
Earlier this year, Jacob Wallenberg took part in a security conference outside Helsinki. There, he raised the point that a potential peace would bring new challenges for the ongoing military buildup among NATO member states.
ALSO READ: Wallenberg: We Are Not Prepared for Peace in Ukraine
– We all know what happens when peace appears.
– Most of us are not well prepared for a potential peace and all that it brings.
Wallenberg to Help Rebuild
In April, it became clear that Swedish industrial billionaire and Saab chairman Marcus Wallenberg is joining an international advisory group linked to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
READ MORE: Wallenberg Family Rewarded with Spot in Zelenskyy’s Council
The council will contribute expertise to Ukraine’s economic reconstruction after the war. The Wallenberg family has previously made statements perceived as opposing a quick peace deal, noting as recently as February that Europe is not ready for peace in Ukraine.
