The Thriller Election Is Not Decided – Wednesday Votes Could Be Decisive

The Swedish election has turned into a real nail-biter. With the preliminary vote count essentially finished, only three seats separate the blocs and about 200,000 votes remain to be counted. On Wednesday, overseas votes and late advance votes could change the entire outcome.

After election night, Magdalena Andersson’s opposition bloc leads with 176 seats compared to 173 for Ulf Kristersson’s Tidö bloc. This puts the opposition just above the magic threshold of 175 seats required for a parliamentary majority.

Margins have been extremely tight during the vote count. The seat distribution has repeatedly swung back and forth between 176–173 and 175–174, and the difference in votes between the blocs has only been a few tens of thousands. At one point during the night, the difference was about 20,000 votes.

The preliminary results mean the Social Democrats, Left Party, Greens, and Centre together have 176 seats, while the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, and Liberals have 173. But the result is not yet final. The Election Authority has begun the final vote count, in which votes from election night are recounted and votes from smaller parties and personal votes are assessed.

The big question, therefore, is what will happen with the so-called Wednesday votes. This mainly concerns late advance votes and votes from Swedes who voted abroad. According to the Election Authority, these are expected to be fully counted on Wednesday or Thursday.

200,000 Votes

A significant number of votes remain. About 200,000 votes are to be counted in the ongoing process, while the difference between the blocs is only about 28,000 votes in the most recent tally. Thus, on paper, there is room for the seat distribution to shift.

This is also why it is still too early to declare a final winner. SVT’s forecast has suggested the opposition might end up with 176 seats against 173, but during the night, forecasts also showed 175–174. Sveriges Radio has likewise reported that the seat distribution has shifted multiple times during the count.

Sweden Democrats’ campaign bus. Photo: Pelle T Nilsson/Sweden Democrats

Kristersson Ready to Fight

During their speeches at the election night parties, both Magdalena Andersson and Ulf Kristersson tried to keep all options open, even though the preliminary results were starting to favor the opposition.

Magdalena Andersson stressed that the election was still very close but pointed out that her side was currently in the lead. She spoke of the need for a “new spirit of cooperation in Swedish politics” and noted that if the preliminary result held, Sweden would get a new government.

Andersson’s message was thus cautiously optimistic. She did not claim a definitive victory but signaled that the Social Democrats and the opposition had a starting position that could bring them back to power. At the same time, her tone was notably cautious given that the Social Democrats themselves were heading for a weaker result than in 2022.

Ulf Kristersson was even clearer that the election result was not settled. In his speech at the Moderates’ election night, the prime minister stated that “the result is not final yet,” but at the same time argued that the voters had sent a clear message: the three leftist parties had once again failed to secure a majority in parliament.

Kristersson also announced that he planned to reach out to other party leaders and explore whether a viable government coalition could be formed, even if the preliminary result stood. This means that the Moderates began, already on election night, to look for ways to form a majority on the center-right side.