The suspected election fraud in Borlänge has raised questions about the election results far beyond Dalarna. More than 5,000 complaints have been filed with the Election Review Board. If this leads to a repeat election, the consequences could be significantly greater than just forcing voters back to the polls. A repeat vote could in fact affect the allocation of mandates in parliament—even if voters in Dalarna cast their ballots exactly as they did in the regular election.

The background is an ongoing investigation into suspected election fraud in Borlänge linked to two Somali Left Party politicians. Allegations include, among other things, that pre-marked ballots and money were distributed during the Left Party’s personal election campaign.

A calculation by mathematician Gustav Karreskog Rehbinder, who has worked with SVT’s election forecasts, shows that a special situation arises during a repeat election since the distribution of mandates is handled differently than it is in the regular parliamentary election.

Dalarna has a total of eleven parliamentary seats. In the regular election, these are made up of fixed constituency seats and adjustment seats. However, in a repeat election in a single constituency, the same system with adjustment seats is not used. Instead, all eleven seats are allocated as constituency seats.

According to Gustav Karreskog Rehbinder’s calculations, the Sweden Democrats could take over a seat that the Green Party received in the regular election—even if the outcome of the repeat election were exactly the same as the original.

Same Votes, New Mandates

This means that the way the electoral system distributes mandates itself can lead to change, without the voters needing to change their party choices. However, this first seat is not the only change that could happen mathematically.

According to Karreskog Rehbinder’s calculations, there is also a possibility that an additional seat might change party, but this would require an actual change in the voting itself.

The Liberals received 7,579 votes in Dalarna, equating to 4.03 percent. The Left Party received 10,814 votes and the Centre Party 12,200.

Small Changes Could Be Enough

If the Liberals were to increase their support while the Left Party or Centre Party lose votes, the Liberals could surpass the threshold for a seat. According to calculations highlighted in Aftonbladet, it could take a shift of about 1,800 votes for this to happen.

This is a more uncertain scenario than the first seat change. But shares of votes and mandates are not the same thing. It is the distribution of mandates that determines how many seats each party gets in parliament, and here the rules for fixed and adjustment seats play an important role.

Of the 223,713 people who had the right to vote in the constituency, about 85 percent participated in this year’s parliamentary election. Political scientist Erik Wångmar told TV4 he believes a repeat election is relatively unlikely, although he does not rule out that it could be considered.