On Friday, the head of the Swedish Security Service (Säpo) announced that the terror threat level remains at an elevated level, a three on the five-point scale. This means that the serious security situation for Sweden persists, and the assessment indicates a continued worsening trend.

According to Säpo, the threat of attacks against Sweden primarily comes from lone individuals or small groups acting against accessible targets using simple means. In terms of ideology, it is said to mainly involve violent Islamism and violent right-wing extremism.

– Events elsewhere in the world can quickly affect the threat level. Recently, there have been serious incidents and attacks in Europe and Australia. Conflicts, wars, and the spread of propaganda can lead to events in one part of the world impacting Swedish security. We need to remain vigilant to be able to act in time, says Charlotte von Essen, chief of the Swedish Security Service.

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The violent Islamist movement in Sweden mainly consists of supportive activities such as radicalization, recruitment, and financing, while violent right-wing extremism is characterized by great variation and different objectives. More established organizations exist, but growth primarily takes place in loosely connected networks and online groups.

Säpo also observes a development where violence itself can take precedence over ideological motives, meaning that individuals are more likely to move between different groups and contexts where violence is advocated. This mobility also means that individuals are increasingly able to shape their own ideology based on the environments they partake in.

Russia the Greatest Threat

The overall threat to Sweden is described as still serious, with Russian ambitions and security-threat activities in the immediate area contributing most to this assessment. Russia is said to remain the largest threat against Sweden.

Russian intelligence and security services are primarily engaged in intelligence operations, influence campaigns, and acquisition of technology. There is also a threat of sabotage directed at Western support for Ukraine. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s actions outside the conflict zone are described as more risky and opportunistic.

Prepared for Deterioration

Säpo’s assessment is that the Russian security-threatening activities may increase in scale and severity. The development is characterized by a more offensive approach, with covert influence operations directed against European countries, including Sweden.

– Global developments are marked by uncertainty and rapid change. As a security service, we must assess how external threats and circumstances affect Sweden’s internal security. The security situation remains serious, and the threat to Sweden is expected to worsen in the coming years. We are prepared for this, says Charlotte von Essen.

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