Pedro Sanchez’s government initially estimated that about half a million people would be included in Spain’s large so-called regularization of illegal immigrants. When the application period closed, 1,174,978 applications had been registered – more than twice the government’s original forecast. Now, Spain’s largest national police union, Jupol, warns that the long-term effect could be significantly greater.

The regularization was launched by Sanchez’s government this spring and covers people who were in Spain before January 1, 2026, and who can show at least five consecutive months of residence in the country. The government has justified the reform in part by citing labor needs, an aging population, and low birth rates.

When the application period ended on June 30, nearly 1.18 million applications had been received. The government had expected around 400,000–500,000 applicants. The official figures also show that about 87 percent of applicants are of working age and that the largest groups come from Colombia, Morocco, Venezuela, and Peru.

Jupol’s Secretary General, Aarón Rivero, voiced criticism on September 14 before a parliamentary working group reviewing the consequences of the regularization. He described the process as too rapid and warned that the rules could serve as a strong incentive for migration.

Four Million

According to Jupol’s calculations, people who have their rights regularized could subsequently bring relatives to Spain. It is this effect that leads the police union to estimate around four million people in the long term. Previous assessments from the police were around three million.

At the same time, Jupol has criticized the workload within the police. Over a million cases have had to be handled without corresponding personnel reinforcement. The union has also claimed that there have been extensive incorrect applications, although information about possible widespread fraud has not been officially confirmed.

The government defends the reform by saying that the new workers can contribute to the economy. According to government data, just over 159,000 additional people had registered as social security contributors by the end of June as a result of the regularization process.

Sanchez is a fan of Magdalena Andersson (S)

Billion-Euro Crisis After the Migrant Surge in Ceuta

At the same time, Sanchez’s government has faced a new and far more acute migration crisis in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta in North Africa.

At the end of July, about 72,000 people from Morocco entered Ceuta over two days. At least 72 people died according to reports, while other international sources have reported even higher death tolls. Many of the migrants were returned, but thousands have remained in the enclave.

READ ALSO: After the Arab Invasion of Ceuta: Spain’s Socialist Government Opens to Taking in Thousands of ‘Unaccompanied Minors’

Ceuta has about 84,000 inhabitants. The crisis has therefore had a very large impact on the small Spanish enclave and become a symbol of Sanchez’s migration policy.

The government has at the same time allocated 309 million euros to Ceuta for security, social initiatives, housing, and economic support. Sanchez has defended the government’s actions and called attention to the fact that about nine out of ten of those who entered later returned to Morocco.

Tens of Thousands Take to the Streets

On September 2, the crisis turned into widespread demonstrations across Spain. Protests were held in more than 260 municipalities and tens of thousands of people participated.

In Madrid, about 50,000 people gathered according to the government delegation, while Madrid city estimated the number at about 150,000. Similar demonstrations were held in Barcelona, Valencia, Seville, Zaragoza, and Palma.

Protesters waved Spanish and Ceuta flags and demanded tougher migration policies, with direct criticism aimed at Sanchez.

The protests were formally organized as support for Ceuta by the Spanish Federation of Municipalities and Provinces (FEMP), but the opposition – primarily Partido Popular and Vox – turned them into a broader protest against the government’s migration policy. PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Vox leader Santiago Abascal both participated in Madrid.

The crisis has also taken on an international dimension. Italy has extended its temporary border controls for travelers from Spain, citing ongoing security risks after the surging migration in Ceuta.

Sanchez Pressured in the Polls

The migration issue has come to the forefront as support for Sanchez’s government base has weakened in several opinion polls.

A recent poll by EM Analytics, conducted September 1–10, placed Sanchez’s PSOE at 25.4 percent, with the Partido Popular at 32.2 percent and Vox at 19.2 percent.

The Spanish polling institute CIS also noted in its September poll a drop for PSOE to 31 percent, two percentage points lower than in July. PP stood at 25.5 percent and Vox at 16.6 percent. The poll was conducted after the Ceuta crisis and is therefore the first national CIS poll after the migrant surge.

The political pressure on Sanchez is thus increasing on two fronts: the government must handle the consequences of the extensive regularization, where the number of applications has already more than doubled the original forecast, while the Ceuta crisis has triggered large protests at home.

READ ALSO: Tens of thousands demonstrated in Spain after the migration crisis in Ceuta