Professor: Researchers are wrong about the profitability of offshore wind power

Swedish researchers base their calculations on the assumption that the technology for offshore wind power will become cheaper. However, a professor in energy conversion argues that this is incorrect, citing research.

Earlier this year, a report from Chalmers presented a consequence analysis of new nuclear power by describing three possible future electricity systems in Sweden. The report praises technologies such as offshore wind and claims that offshore wind power should be competitive with onshore wind power after 2050.

However, offshore wind power is currently being built and operated at approximately double the cost compared to onshore wind power, making it unprofitable in Sweden, points out Jonas Kristiansen Nøland, a professor in energy conversion at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), in a column in Affärsvärlden.

The Chalmers researchers expect the cost of offshore wind power to decrease more rapidly, but Nøland argues that there is no guarantee that any of the technologies will decrease significantly in price. He points out that cost reductions for wind power have historically been driven mainly by larger turbines and economies of scale, rather than by learning effects.

Nøland also refers to new research showing that the costs of offshore wind power in the UK have increased by eight percent each time the expansion has doubled – the trend is clear and the data covers a period of 23 years.

Study with opposite conclusion

In another study commissioned by the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise, a completely different picture of Sweden’s energy future is presented. Instead, the conclusion is that offshore wind power can only play a role if it is subsidized. Nøland argues that the completely different conclusions may indicate that already established perceptions to some extent influence the interpretation.

There is thus no evidence that the costs of offshore wind power decrease as we build. On the contrary, rather.

While it is difficult to predict the future, one thing is certain according to Nøland – if offshore wind power is ever to become competitive, completely new technology must be developed from scratch.