Poll: Markus Allard on His Way to Parliament

The Örebro Party and its outspoken leader Markus Allard could be on their way to securing a place in the country’s highest decision-making body and supreme democratic assembly. In a new poll, the party receives 15 percent of the votes in the Örebro regional election.

The four percent threshold is often described as the major hurdle for new parties seeking entry into parliament. But there is a lesser-known alternative route. A party that receives at least twelve percent of the votes in a single parliamentary constituency can win a seat there—even if it doesn’t reach four percent nationwide.

This opens up a completely different campaign strategy for a new party. Instead of trying to build four percent national support from the outset, the party can concentrate its resources on one or more parliamentary constituencies where it already enjoys strong backing.

A party that, for example, only receives around two or three percent nationally can still get into parliament if its support is sufficiently concentrated geographically. Achieving over twelve percent in one parliamentary constituency could secure fixed seats for the party there, despite remaining under the national four percent threshold.

It is also important to distinguish between parliamentary and municipal or regional elections. It is not enough for a new party to get twelve percent in a municipality. It is the result in the parliamentary election in the relevant constituency that determines whether the rule can be used.

A Different Focus for the Campaign

For a new party, this could transform the whole campaign. Instead of trying to compete with established parties across all of Sweden, the goal could be to establish a political stronghold in a particular metropolitan region or another constituency where support is unusually high.

The twelve-percent rule means that the four-percent threshold is not the only possible way into parliament. For a party with limited resources, a geographically concentrated campaign may be much more realistic than aiming for four percent of votes across the entire country.

15 Percent

In a new Novus poll commissioned by Nerikes Allehanda, the Örebro Party receives just over 15 percent in the regional election. This means the party has tripled its support.

Could this also mean that a parliamentary seat is secured?

– I understand it’s a conclusion people want to draw, but it’s not a conclusion one should draw, says opinion expert Hjalmar Strid of the polling firm Novus to NA.

Data shows that the proportion of voters choosing different parties in parliamentary, municipal, and regional elections has increased, but according to Strid, this tells us nothing about the Örebro Party’s chances.

The Odds in Allard’s Favor

Interest in the Örebro Party is also visible on the betting market. A few weeks ago, the betting site Betsson announced that the odds for the Örebro Party to secure a parliamentary seat started at 8.00 times the money, which was later reduced to 6.00 and then 4.00—something corresponding to around a 25 percent chance.

– Bets on the Örebro Party continue to pour in, indicating that many bettors view reaching the twelve-percent threshold as realistic. The odds drop is a direct effect of increased betting interest, says Robin Olenius, PR Manager at Betsson.