One in three 15-year-olds in the EU does not reach a basic level in reading or mathematics, and the proportion has increased by just over eleven percentage points since 2015. The EU Commission points to digital distractions, uncritical use of AI, decreased parental engagement, and teacher shortages as explanations. However, students’ migration background is not among the factors highlighted, even though performance differences are significant in countries like Sweden.

The figures come from the Commission’s first analysis of PISA 2025 from an EU perspective, published on October 5th. In mathematics, 33.9 percent of students do not reach level 2 on the PISA scale, the minimum level needed to participate actively in society. In reading, the figure is 31.3 percent, and in science, 25.9 percent.

The development has been rapid. Since 2015, the share of underperforming students has increased by 11.6 percentage points in mathematics and 11.3 percentage points in reading. Almost half of the increase in reading has occurred in the last three years.

The member states have agreed that the share should be below 15 percent by 2030. In reading and mathematics, not a single EU country has reached this target, and in science, Estonia is the only one to achieve it. The same threshold had already been set for 2020 but was never met, as Europaportalen points out in its review of the report.

The number of top-performing students is also shrinking. Only 4.8 percent achieve the highest level in reading, 6.4 percent in science, and 6.8 percent in mathematics, far below the target of 12 percent. The Council of Ministers settled for this level, even though the Commission had proposed 15 percent. Compared to Canada, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, the UK, and the US, the EU has the highest share of weak students in reading and science, and the lowest share of top students in all three subjects.

Four Explanations

The Commission emphasizes that PISA data cannot show causality, but highlights four factors that research has linked to poorer performance. Nearly one in three students, 30.5 percent, are often distracted by digital tools during lessons. These students score an average of 13 points lower in science, even when socio-economic background is taken into account. According to the OECD’s rule of thumb, about 20 points corresponds to one year of schooling.

About as many, 31.2 percent, often use AI to summarize texts they should read themselves. On average, they score 18 points lower. According to the analysis, AI tools often shift from being aids to being used to avoid thinking independently, but since the technology only became widespread after 2022, it can only explain the drop in recent years, not the long-term trend.

At the same time, fewer students report that their family cares about what they learn in school. The proportion has dropped from 66.0 to 57.5 percent since 2022. The fourth factor is the teacher shortage, which the Commission says is more specific to the EU than the other factors. Four out of ten students attend schools where the principal says that a lack of teachers makes teaching more difficult, compared to 28.3 percent in 2018.

Students from socioeconomically disadvantaged households are about four times more likely to underperform in science than those from advantaged backgrounds.

Migration Not Mentioned

In the over 30-page-long report, there is no reference to migration, immigration, or foreign background. The section on inequality deals only with socio-economic background, measured by the OECD’s index for parents’ education, occupation, and possessions at home.

How great the difference can be is clear from the Swedish National Agency for Education’s own PISA report. Of the Swedish students who participated, 23.2 percent have a foreign background. 12.4 percent are born in Sweden with two foreign-born parents and 10.8 percent are themselves born abroad. In reading, students born in Sweden with a foreign background score 57 points lower than those with a Swedish background. For students born abroad, the difference is 90 points.

The gap is larger in Sweden than the OECD average. The differences remain even when students’ socio-economic backgrounds are taken into account, though they are roughly halved then. That the gap for foreign-born students has decreased since 2022, from 108 points, is mainly because the results among students with a Swedish background have declined, according to the Swedish National Agency for Education.

In total, 31 percent of Swedish 15-year-olds do not reach the basic level in reading and 34 percent do not in mathematics, up from 24 and 27 percent respectively in 2022. This is on par with the EU average. The result in reading, 466 points, is the lowest ever measured for Sweden in PISA, according to the Swedish National Agency for Education’s summary.

Similar patterns are seen in other member states. In Austria, nearly one in five 15-year-olds has had to repeat a grade, and among students with an immigrant background the share is even higher.

Education Package in November

The analysis will form the basis for the education package to be presented by the Commission in November, and the conclusions are expressed in sharp terms.

“The PISA 2025 results are not a subtle warning signal. They are a direct threat to the EU’s future competitiveness, our social cohesion, and Europeans’ ability to withstand changes in a rapidly changing world,” the report’s authors at the Commission’s Directorate-General for Education write.

The Commission refers to an OECD study showing that declining basic skills among young people could reduce long-term productivity growth by around three percent if nothing is done. Education policy is the responsibility of member states, but since last spring, basic skills have been linked to the EU’s annual coordination of economic policy, which means the issue could appear in the recommendations each country receives from Brussels.

As examples of countries that have resisted the decline or improved their results, the Commission mentions Estonia, Ireland, Poland, Slovakia, and Italy.