The election in Rhineland-Palatinate marked yet another setback for Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) – while AfD achieves its best result ever in a West German state.
On Sunday, a state election was held in Rhineland-Palatinate in western Germany. The result signals a clear shift in the political landscape, with the Christian Democratic CDU overtaking and becoming the largest party, while the Social Democratic SPD loses ground after decades in power.
CDU received 31 percent of the votes, thus becoming the largest party in the state. The SPD, which has led the government since 1991, fell back to 25.9 percent, the first time the party has dropped below 30 percent. At the same time, the immigration-critical AfD rose sharply and landed at 19.5 percent – a doubling compared to the previous election and the party’s strongest result in a western German state.
READ ALSO: AfD members banned from running for mayor
The Green Party received 7.9 percent, while both the liberal FDP and Freie Wähler (FW) lost support and fell below the five percent threshold, meaning they are out of the parliament. The left party Die Linke also failed to gain entry. Voter turnout was 68.5 percent.
| Party | Percent | Change | Seats | Seat Change | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDU | 31.0% | +3.3 | 39 | +8 |
|
| SPD | 25.9% | −9.8 | 32 | −7 |
|
| AfD | 19.5% | +11.2 | 24 | +15 |
|
| Greens | 7.9% | −1.4 | 10 | 0 |
|
| Linke | 4.4% | +1.9 | 0 | 0 |
|
| FW | 4.2% | −1.2 | 0 | −6 |
|
| FDP | 2.1% | −3.4 | 0 | −6 |
|
SPD’s long rule is broken
The reason for the loss is particularly notable since the SPD has governed Rhineland-Palatinate for over three decades. In the 2021 election, the party was by far the largest with 35.7 percent, but since then has dropped sharply in the polls.
The previous government consisted of the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP – the so-called “traffic light coalition”. After the 2021 election, the coalition could remain, but the balance of power shifted as the Greens overtook the FDP.
During the term, longtime state premier Malu Dreyer resigned for health reasons in the summer of 2024 and was replaced by Alexander Schweitzer, marking a leadership change in an already pressured Social Democratic party.
AfD reaches record level in the west
AfD’s success stands out. The party, which has long had its strongest support in eastern Germany, now achieves its best result ever in a West German state. With almost one in five votes, the party cements its position as a central force in German politics.
READ ALSO: Record figure: AfD is the largest party in Germany
Despite its success, AfD is still expected to be kept out of government influence. All other parties maintain the so-called “firewall” – a political policy excluding cooperation with AfD.
Likely coalition: CDU and SPD
With the FDP, FW, and Die Linke outside the parliament, possibilities for alternative majorities are limited. A left-wing coalition between the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke isn’t possible since they lack enough support.
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The most likely scenario is instead a so-called “grand coalition” between the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) – similar to the one recently formed at the federal level in Germany. In such cooperation, CDU is expected to take the lead.
The election result reflects a broader trend in German politics where the traditional ruling parties are losing ground, while voters increasingly look for alternatives.
Don’t miss Samnytt’s report
In 2024, Samnytt visited Germany for a report on developments in the country. Don’t miss the video:
????Reportage: Europa eller Mellanöstern?
Den demografiska förändringen har varit enorm under de senaste decennierna där vissa områden har fått en helt utbytt befolkning. Det ser liknande ut på andra platser i Europa.
Samnytt och @AssarChristian har besökt Berlin för att få en… pic.twitter.com/6ezKHmkmRZ
— Samnytt (@samhallsnytt) May 6, 2024