The Researcher: Migration and Culture Are Europe's Biggest Problems

Finnish mathematician and demography researcher Kyösti Tarvainen believes that Europe’s debate on low birth rates is focusing on the wrong issue. In an interview, he says that declining birth rates are not necessarily a threat to society and that the Western world should instead be discussing the consequences that large-scale migration has for culture, social cohesion, and trust.

Tarvainen, who has long studied migration and population development in Europe, considers that economic growth does not have to be the overriding goal of a society. He points to several Eastern European countries where the population has decreased while living standards have continued to rise. According to him, there is therefore no obvious link between population growth and a successful society.

In the interview with företagande.se, he highlights Japan as an example of a country that has chosen a different path than many European states. There, policy has long been considerably more restrictive when it comes to migration. Tarvainen argues that Western policymakers often use labor shortages and low birth rates as arguments for high immigration, even though the real issue, according to him, concerns shortages in specific professions.

He also says that he shares the view that a shrinking population is preferable to extensive migration of people without sought-after skills.

At the same time, Tarvainen expresses great concern about Europe’s demographic development, especially linked to migration from Muslim countries. He describes how he began to take an interest in the issue about 15 years ago and claims that high birth rates within certain groups as well as family reunification immigration are affecting Europe’s future population composition.

He also refers to his own analyses and forecasts which, according to him, show that current trends could have far-reaching consequences in decades to come.

Trust and Community

Despite his criticism of current developments, Tarvainen speaks warmly about Sweden as a nation of innovation. He highlights Swedish engineers, entrepreneurs, and industrial companies as important factors behind the country’s economic successes, describing Sweden’s technical expertise as something rare from an international perspective. For just this reason, he believes that demographic change is particularly problematic here. Among other things, he points to increased segregation and maintains that the cultural consequences often end up overshadowed because living standards continue to rise.

During the interview, Tarvainen returns several times to the importance of trust and community for a society to function. He argues that the Nordic countries have historically been built on a strong sense of national unity, which has been crucial for both entrepreneurship and economic prosperity. If people increasingly identify with family, relatives, or religious groups rather than the nation, both cohesion and respect for common rules risk being weakened, according to him.

Tarvainen also links social problems such as theft, benefit fraud, and crime to demographic changes and claims that some groups do not feel part of Swedish society. He describes development in both the UK and Sweden as worrying and says that the key issue for the future is not how many people live in a country, but what kind of society will be handed down to the next generation. According to him, the economy and prosperity can never be completely separated from culture, trust, and social cohesion.