Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán warns that developments in the Middle East may have far-reaching consequences for EU countries. In a video posted on social media, Orbán highlights the risk that a prolonged war in Iran, with its 90 million inhabitants, could trigger large-scale migrations as people are forced to flee from bombings, destroyed infrastructure, and a society without basic resources such as jobs, education, healthcare, food, and water.

In recent decades, U.S. military interventions and conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa have had far-reaching consequences for the region’s populations. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, NATO’s intervention in Libya, as well as the civil war in Syria, have driven millions of people to seek refuge in the EU.

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Many of those who have come to the EU have stayed and never returned to the countries where the U.S., among others, tried to introduce democracy and freedom. At the same time, European societies have had to deal with increased demands for integration, strain on public services, housing shortages, parallel communities, and a visible shift in the social and religious makeup.

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU once again received millions of refugees from the east. A prolonged conflict in Iran, which could spread to neighboring countries, could trigger yet another wave of people fleeing toward Europe.

At least, that is what Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán warns. He particularly points to Iran’s size and geographical location as factors that could affect future migration flows.

– There is also a war ongoing in the Middle East right now. No one knows what immigration problems a long-term military conflict will cause. Iran is a country with 90 million people. If they start from there, Turkey is next, and they’re already on the Balkans and here at our fence.

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The Hungarian prime minister emphasized that the situation requires caution going forward and believes it is a likely scenario.

– We must be prudent. This is not a time to take risks.

At the same time, Orbán raised energy as a parallel challenge. According to the prime minister, deliveries of liquefied natural gas from Qatar have been halted, something that is contributing to rising energy prices.