There are dramatic swings in the final stretch of the election campaign. The Social Democrats have dropped by over four percentage points while the Liberals are climbing toward the parliamentary threshold. With just eleven days left until the election, the opposition’s lead has shrunk to 2.6 percentage points.

The Liberals make a significant leap forward in the new Novus poll, commissioned by TV4. The party increases by 1.4 percentage points to 3.3 percent, which is the highest figure since Simona Mohamsson became party leader. With just 0.7 percentage points to go before reaching the parliamentary threshold, L suddenly senses an opportunity to enter parliament.

Sverigedemokraterna (SD) leader Jimmie Åkesson has previously set 3.5 percent as a critical level for the Liberals. If the party does not reach that level by the day before the critical deadline, the SD leader has said he will not encourage voters to vote for L, as the votes then risk being unrepresented in parliament.

The Sweden Democrats increase by 1.6 percentage points and reach 20.7 percent. The Moderates head in the opposite direction, decreasing by 1.1 percentage points to 17.2 percent. This means SD solidifies its position as the largest party on the right in this poll.

S is struggling

For the Social Democrats, the development looks considerably darker. The party lands at 25.8 percent after losing a full 4.3 percentage points compared to the previous Novus poll.

This change significantly affects the power balance between the political blocs. Just two weeks ago, the red-greens held a 6.9 percentage point lead. In the latest poll, the margin has shrunk to 2.6 percentage points.

This means what had, for much of the parliamentary term, looked like a relatively stable advantage for the opposition has now become much more uncertain.

The development is also remarkable because the Social Democrats had previously stood much higher. In April last year, the party was registered at nearly 37 percent in Novus.