The EU’s method for measuring cars’ climate impact is based on a model that is too narrow. This is according to researchers at the Technical University of Munich, TUM, who now question a central foundation of the union’s car policy. According to the university’s analysis, electric cars have lower emissions than petrol and diesel cars – but are far from zero.

The new analysis from TUM puts the spotlight on how the EU calculates emissions from new passenger cars. In today’s system, battery-powered electric cars are considered emission-free because they do not emit carbon dioxide through the exhaust pipe while driving. The researchers argue that this gives a misleading picture of the car’s actual climate impact.

Instead, TUM wants the entire life cycle of the car to be taken into account. This includes emissions from raw material extraction, battery and vehicle manufacturing, the production of electricity used throughout the car’s lifetime, and recycling. According to the university, about half of an electric car’s total life cycle emissions may have occurred before the car has driven its first kilometer.

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The researchers have reviewed 19 previous studies and a total of 47 different scenarios. The result is that battery electric cars on average reduce emissions by about 41 percent compared to equivalent combustion engine cars when the full life cycle is considered. This is therefore a significant reduction but still far from the zero-emissions level that the EU’s current exhaust-based system suggests.

How great the climate benefit is also depends on several factors, especially how the electricity is produced and how the battery and car are manufactured. An electric car charged with electricity from a fossil-intensive energy mix will therefore have a completely different climate profile than a car charged with electricity from more climate-efficient energy sources. TUM’s main objection is that current regulations do not take these differences into account.

Instead, TUM wants to replace today’s focus on “decarbonization” with a broader goal of “defossilization” – that is, above all, to phase out the use of fossil energy sources rather than automatically favoring a certain technological solution. This could open the door to several different technologies, including alternative fuels, as long as they actually reduce the use of fossil raw materials.

Political Consequences

The criticism comes as the EU faces ongoing discussions on the union’s future car policy and the controversial decision to effectively phase out the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035.

In Germany, the results have already had political consequences. Bavaria’s Minister-President Markus Söder has used the study as an argument for the EU to change its course and not lock the car industry into a single technology.

However, the study does not mean that TUM claims electric cars are worse for the climate than combustion cars. The summary shows that electric cars generally have lower emissions over their lifecycle. The scientific critique is rather about how large the difference is and how the EU’s regulations measure it.

Economic and Climate Policy Misalignments

The question now being raised is whether Europe’s climate policy should really be based on favoring a specific type of powertrain or whether emissions from the entire lifecycle should be decisive.

For the EU’s automotive industry, the question could have major consequences. TUM warns that a rulebook that favors a single technological solution risks leading to both economic and climate policy misalignments.

The university’s conclusion is that climate policy should focus on the actual reduction of emissions and leave more room for different technological pathways to reach that goal.

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