With just a few days left until the parliamentary election, the Liberals get a significant boost in Novus’s latest voter barometer. The party reaches 5.8 percent, which is the first time during this parliamentary term that the Liberals are statistically above the four-percent threshold.

The increase comes after a long period of very weak poll numbers and means that the Liberals have now more than tripled their measured support in just a few weeks.

In the previous Novus poll commissioned by TV4, which was presented on September 7, the Liberals received 4.3 percent according to the reported change, while in the August poll the party stood at 1.9 percent.

The latest figure of 5.8 percent is also the Liberals’ highest result in a Novus poll since August 2022, when the party got 6.0 percent. In the parliamentary election that same year, the Liberals achieved 4.6 percent.

Novus describes the Liberals’ development as remarkable and states that they have never before seen such a rapid rise for a party that has been below the parliamentary threshold so close to an election.

Novus analysis shows that the Liberals’ gain mainly comes from the Sweden Democrats, but the Moderates are also losing voters to the Liberals.

The increase of 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous poll is statistically confirmed, meaning it cannot be explained simply by statistical uncertainty in the survey.

At the same time, it is not only the Liberals who stand out in the new poll. The Green Party rises to 8.8 percent, while the scandal-ridden Left Party drops to 7.5 percent.

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The Social Democrats are still clearly the largest party with 26.6 percent, while the Sweden Democrats receive 19.3 percent. The Moderates land at 16.6 percent.

Even Between the Blocs

Despite the Liberals’ gain, it is the opposition that has the upper hand in the collective bloc standings. The Social Democrats, Left Party, Green Party, and Centre Party together get 50.7 percent, while the Moderates, Liberals, Christian Democrats, and Sweden Democrats collect 48.1 percent.

The difference between the blocs is thus 2.6 percentage points. However, this is still less than the statistical margin of error, which means that Novus cannot confirm that the opposition actually has greater voter support than the Tidö parties.

This means that the new poll, despite the dramatic development for the Liberals, still shows a very open situation ahead of election day. The only change between parties that Novus considers statistically confirmed is the Liberals’ gain.

The poll was conducted by Novus between September 6 and 8, encompassing a total of 2,292 interviews.

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