Increasing EU Resistance in Norway

Resistance to Norwegian EU membership continues to grow. A recent opinion poll shows that more than half of the voters say no – and the turnaround is particularly clear among Labour Party sympathizers. At the same time, the group of undecided voters has decreased to record low levels.

The latest survey from Respons Analyse shows that 53 percent of Norwegians now say no to EU membership, while only 33 percent say yes. Since spring, the no side’s lead has grown from ten to twenty percentage points, while the proportion of undecided voters has decreased from 20 to 14 percent.

Einar Frogner, chairman of the organization Nei til EU, sees the development as a clear sign of where the public opinion stands.

– The fact that so few are undecided shows how strong the grip is for the no side right now. Several surveys point in the same direction: resistance is increasing and people simply do not want to join the EU, he tells VG.

The yes side takes the numbers lightly

European Movement – the yes side’s campaign organization – is led by Labour Party member of parliament Trine Lise Sundnes. Despite fewer of her own party’s voters supporting the EU, she downplays the significance and argues that the survey should be seen in a longer perspective.

– Public opinion is shifting, and it is neither unexpected nor dramatic. Many are upset about the process regarding the EU’s customs duties on ferroalloys, which of course affects the mood. We must expect continued fluctuations in the future, says Sundnes.

However, she welcomes the fact that the EU issue is being openly discussed.

– It is positive that Norway’s role in Europe is being debated. It is a discussion that should take the time it needs.

Turnaround among Labour Party voters

The differentiated results show a clear change within the Labour Party. In March, a yes to the EU was the largest within the party’s electorate, with almost half in favor of membership. In the new survey, the roles are reversed: 44 percent say no and 42 percent say yes.

Resistance is strongest among the Centre Party’s voters (96 percent), while the Red Party (73 percent) and the Progress Party (68 percent) also show strong EU skepticism. The greatest EU support is found in the Green Party (64 percent), the Liberal Party (63 percent), and the Conservative Party (49 percent).

Customs dispute believed to have influenced public opinion

Political scientist Jonas Stein at the University of Tromsø assesses that the EU’s decision to impose customs duties on Norwegian iron alloys has contributed to strengthening the no side. Despite intense Norwegian lobbying, the EU chose to protect its own industry – something that hits Norwegian producers hard.

– This conflict could have influenced public opinion in both directions, but the effect seems to have increased skepticism, says Stein.

At the same time, he points out that support for the EEA agreement has been stable, even as resistance to the EU increases.

The yes side has tried to use the customs conflict as an argument for Norway to stand stronger as a member of the EU. But according to Stein, that logic does not really resonate:

– Many have perceived the EEA as Norway being “on the inside” in practice. When in this issue, the country feels punished by the EU, it has a negative impact on the yes arguments.