Starting Thursday, October 1, 2026, gasoline and diesel will become more expensive as the temporary reduction in the energy tax, introduced this spring, expires. The tax hike corresponds to about SEK 1.03 per liter of gasoline and SEK 0.40 per liter of diesel including VAT—if the full change is reflected at the pump. In December, the next blow will come.

It’s a good idea to fill up before Thursday if you want to avoid the first reset. The temporary energy tax reduction was valid from May 1 to September 30, 2026, and was decided in response to rising energy prices after the conflict in the Middle East.

In the government’s press release in April, it was stated that the reduction corresponded to about SEK 1 per liter of gasoline and SEK 0.40 per liter of diesel including VAT, assuming it was passed on to the end customer. Now, the tax returns to previous levels.

What the Increase Means in Practice

For gasoline, the change means about SEK 1.03 per liter including VAT. For diesel, it’s around SEK 0.40. For a 50-liter tank, this results in just over SEK 50 more for the gasoline driver, and about SEK 20 for those driving diesel—provided companies let the full tax increase show at the pump.

Tax, however, is not the same as the pump price. Crude oil prices, the exchange rate, competition, and company margins also influence what motorists pay. Higher taxes create clear upward price pressure, but the actual liter price at gas stations may vary up or down depending on other market factors.

The Next Blow in December

October 1 is just the first step. On July 1, the carbon tax was also temporarily lowered—by SEK 2.40 per liter on gasoline and SEK 2,400 per cubic meter on diesel—until November 30.

When that reduction expires on December 1, both gasoline and diesel are expected to rise by about SEK 3 per liter including VAT if the adjustment is fully passed on. Together, the two resets amount to about SEK 4 more per liter of gasoline and over SEK 3.40 more per liter of diesel compared to today’s tax levels.

Meanwhile, global energy prices remain high and the Swedish krona has weakened, making imports more expensive. Analysts have warned that the diesel price could be pushed up toward SEK 28–29 per liter by Christmas if several factors coincide—but that is a market projection, not a decided price.

Temporary Relief in Uncertain Times

The government justified the spring tax reductions with the need to ease the effects of rapid oil and gas price hikes following the war in Iran. Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson (M) stated at the time that the measure was intended to ease the burden for those dependent on their cars.

The reduction was always intended to be temporary. On October 1, the energy tax will be reset according to the timetable decided in the spring. Whether—and how—a new government after the election may want to extend or replace the relief remains a political question not yet settled.

For frequent drivers, the difference will be felt as early as October. For those who wait until December, the impact will be significantly greater.