Khan is expected to surpass Smith as the most common surname among newborns in England and Wales as early as 2027. At the same time, figures from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS), highlighted in British media, show that the number of children born to UK-born mothers is falling sharply. Among foreign-born mothers, the trend is the opposite.

Last year, 4,120 newborns were registered with the surname Smith and 3,772 with the surname Khan. Smith is decreasing by an average of four percent per year, while Khan is increasing by almost two percent. Of the ten most common surnames among newborns, only three are of British origin.

This is according to an analysis of statistics from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS). The forecast is based on the trend of the past ten years continuing, reports The Telegraph.

In 1996, 5,464 more children were born with the surname Smith than with Khan. Since then, Smith has decreased by 44 percent among newborns, Jones by 43, and Williams by 41 percent, while Khan has more than doubled over the last 30 years. In 1853, it is estimated that around 253,600 people bore the name Smith.

In 1996, all of the ten most common surnames among newborns were of British origin, with Smith, Jones, and Williams at the top. But last year, the list looked like this: Smith, Khan, Ahmed, Ali, Jones, Hussain, Singh, Williams, Patel, and Kaur.

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The biggest increase since 1996 is for Fatima, up 3,314 percent, followed by Bilal, Umar, and Muhammad. Ibrahim has climbed from rank 563 to 73.

In 2023, Muhammad became the most common boys’ name in England and Wales for the first time, with over 4,600 registered, and has remained at the top in both 2024 and 2025. This does not include the spellings Mohammed and Mohammad, which are also among the hundred most common names.

Births to Britons Decrease – Births to Immigrants Increase

The proportion of residents classified as having Asian ethnicity in Britain has, according to census figures, increased from 4.4 percent in 2001 to 9.3 percent in 2021.

Khan is expected to surpass Smith as the most common surname among newborns in England and Wales as early as 2027. Meanwhile, figures highlighted in the British media show that the number of children born to UK-born mothers is sharply declining.

Meanwhile, births among foreign-born mothers are increasing – especially among women born in Asia and the Middle East.

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Nuni Jorgensen, a researcher at the Migration Observatory at Oxford University, says that the trend mirrors migration patterns. Khan is a common name in South Asia, and immigration from there has especially increased since 2021.

At the same time, UK-born women are having fewer children, which means that immigrant mothers account for a larger share of births. Some groups also share fewer surnames among their members. However, according to her, there is no data on how much this affects Khan and Smith specifically.

Rob Bates is head of research at the Centre for Migration Control and a critic of the British governments’ migration policies. He talks about an unprecedented demographic change.

– This is a change that has been imposed upon the country without any democratic mandate, and it is the result of government after government failing to heed the will of the British people and reduce immigration, he told The Telegraph.

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