Food Prices May Soar This Fall – Possible New Price Shock Like After the Ukraine Invasion

This summer’s heat has hit this year’s harvests hard. Now, experts warn that the consequences could reach Swedish grocery stores in the fall and, in the worst case, lead to a price shock comparable to that following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

This summer’s weather in Europe could leave a costly aftertaste for Swedish consumers. Heat, drought, and record temperatures have caused extensive damage to agriculture and risk pushing up prices on several staple foods during the autumn.

According to an analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, ECIU, the European heatwave in June has meant that about nine million tons of grain may be lost. The value of the missed grain production is estimated at about two billion euros, equivalent to just over 20 billion kronor.

It is primarily cereal crops such as wheat, barley, corn, and oats that have been affected. The European grain and oilseed organization Coceral believes that EU countries and the United Kingdom together may see their smallest grain harvest since 2018.

For Swedish consumers, this could primarily mean higher prices for products such as bread, pasta, flour, muesli, and oatmeal. Grain is also used as animal feed, which means that a more expensive grain market could also impact the prices of items like eggs, milk, pork, and beef further down the line.

It is this chain effect that makes the situation particularly concerning. A smaller harvest not only means that the grain itself becomes more expensive. When farmers’ feed costs go up, livestock producers may also be forced to raise their prices, which in turn can ripple throughout the entire food supply chain.

“Not at all impossible”

Helena Hansson, professor of economics at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, warns that the situation could, in the worst case, resemble the dramatic price developments after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

– It is not at all impossible that we get a price shock like the one we saw in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, she tells Dagens Nyheter.

This does not mean that an equally sharp price increase is inevitable, but the comparison shows how serious the situation could become if European harvests turn out worse than expected and global grain supplies are under pressure at the same time.

After the Russian invasion in 2022, the food market was hit by a combination of trade disruptions, sharply rising energy and fertilizer costs, and concern about grain exports from Ukraine. The EU found that the invasion further pushed up already rising global prices for crops and food.

This time, the cause is different, but the effect could be similar. When the supply of agricultural products decreases while demand remains, commodity prices are pushed upward.

Could Get More Expensive Next Year Too

The problems also risk extending beyond just the autumn. ECIU estimates that Europe’s harvest losses could make it more dependent on imports. If harvests elsewhere in the world are also poor, this could contribute to further increases in the global commodity markets.

The effect on the store shelves won’t necessarily be immediate either. Raw material prices must first filter through to producers, the food industry, and retailers before fully reaching consumers. This means that a bad European harvest in the summer may only become noticeable when autumn and winter goods begin to be produced and sold.

At the same time, the situation for Swedish consumers is sensitive. Food prices in Sweden rose by just over 30 percent between 2022 and 2025, according to the industry organization Livsmedelsföretagen.

So, a new 2022-style shock is far from certain. But if heat, drought, and other weather problems continue to affect harvests while global demand for grain remains high, the autumn could bring yet another period of rapidly rising food prices.

For households, this could mean an unpleasant repeat: first cheaper food during the spring and summer, followed by a new wave of price increases as the effects of the European harvest crisis begin to reach store shelves.