EU: No Peace in Ukraine Unless Russia Reduces the Size of Its Military

While the US attempts to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, the EU—with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the Union’s foreign minister Kaja Kallas at the forefront—is preparing its own approach to achieve peace. Kallas states that she is working on a list of concrete concessions that Russia must agree to in order for peace to be possible in Ukraine. She also rejects claims that Russia has an advantage in eastern Ukraine.
– The important thing is to know that Russia is not winning this war, she emphasized.

In a longer interview with Euronews, Kallas elaborates on her view of the US-led peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, including the meetings held in Abu Dhabi. She claims that the US initiative has so far not led to any concrete results. At the same time, in contrast to her statement, it can be noted that the parties are now actually talking directly at the same table—something that hasn’t happened like this for several years.

Kallas harshly criticizes the fact that Russia also continues its military attacks in Ukraine while negotiations are underway. She argues that this must end, but that it also reveals Kremlin’s true willingness to negotiate. Despite the fact that Russia still controls much of eastern Ukraine and continues to advance, Kallas rejects the notion that the Russian military has an advantage in the war.

Kallas specifically highlights what she considers to be Russia’s economic problems and rising casualty numbers as proof of this.

— The important thing is to know that Russia is not winning this war. The casualty numbers are increasing. Their economy is not doing well, she said, adding that the EU’s defense ministers are discussing further ways to support Ukraine.

Loss Figures From One Side

She does not comment, however, on what Ukraine’s losses look like, making it difficult to unquestioningly take her depiction for granted. Since Russia’s invasion in 2022, statements from political leaders and media coverage have largely focused on Russian losses, whereas more detailed and verified information on Ukrainian losses has been more limited. This makes it still difficult to get a comprehensive view of the human cost of the war.

On February 5 this year, NBC News reported that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky stated 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in fighting since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. This figure has been questioned in several quarters. One person presenting a completely different picture is former US President Donald Trump, who a year ago claimed that nearly two million people have been killed on both sides—a figure likely to have grown significantly during the past year.

— We have numbers showing about a million Russian soldiers have been killed and about 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, Trump said in January 2025.

A new study from the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), highlighted by The New York Times among others in late January, suggests that the number of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed, wounded, or reported missing during the nearly four years of war is on track to reach two million already this spring.

According to the study, nearly 1.2 million Russian soldiers and about 600,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, wounded, or have disappeared, meaning the total losses for both countries amount to nearly 1.8 million people. CSIS also estimates that between 100,000 and 140,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the start of the war. These figures too are questioned in several places as being significantly higher.

What is clear, however, is that most, with the exception of President Volodymyr Zelensky, talk about significantly higher numbers on the Ukrainian side. In this context, it is also interesting to note that almost no Western leaders, except the US President and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, comment on the death figures on both sides.

Within the EU, there is in practice total silence from political representatives about the actual losses on the Ukrainian side after four years of fighting, with all communication instead focused on continued support—with no time limit or more precise specification regarding what this might cost.

Photo montage by Samnytt. Photos: Ministry of Defense Ukraine / Facsimile NBC News

The Demand: Russian Concessions

The EU’s foreign minister Kaja Kallas sees no possibility for peace in Ukraine unless Brussels is included in the negotiations. According to her, this is the only way to achieve lasting peace. According to Kallas, the EU assesses that Russia is currently not negotiating seriously with the US and Ukraine, as the demands are being directed unilaterally at Ukraine to make concessions.

– We have only seen what the Ukrainians are willing to give up to end this war.

– We have not seen any concessions from the Russian side.

Kallas warns about the Russian negotiation tactics, which she says are long familiar.

– They demand something absolutely maximal, something that never was theirs, and then present threats, ultimatums, and use force. And there will always be people in the West who give you something, and you leave the table with more than you started with.

According to the EU leader’s description, the same negotiation strategy can be likened to the pressure recently exerted by the Trump administration on Denmark over Greenland earlier this year.

Due to the current state of negotiations and the EU’s push for a solution, Kaja Kallas plans to put pressure on Russia by presenting a new, “sustainable peace plan” from the EU. The plan will include a series of demands for concessions directed squarely at Russia’s president Vladimir Putin.

In the interview, Kaja Kallas explains her view that, to achieve peace in Ukraine, concessions must come from the Russian military, something she has also previously emphasized at a security conference in Oslo earlier this month.

– Russia has attacked its neighboring countries for over a hundred years. To stop the war, concessions must be made by Russia.

– The size of the Ukrainian army is not the problem, because they have not attacked Russia. The size of the Russian army, however, is a problem for all of its neighboring countries. And the size of Russia’s military budget is a problem for everyone.

See the full interview with Kaja Kallas here:

EU Leader Critical of Elections in Ukraine

Furthermore, Kallas is critical of the Trump administration for pressuring Ukraine to hold elections this year, as President Volodymyr Zelensky has now governed two years beyond his mandate due to the war. According to Kallas, trying to force an election under these difficult conditions will not lead to anything positive.

– Because if you have elections, there are always internal battles between different factions, and when you are literally under attack from the outside you simply cannot hold elections, because your opponent is outside, and you have to put all resources into responding to that.