In Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, the anti-immigration and national conservative party AfD is now emerging as the largest party in a new poll ahead of the federal election.

A Forsa survey for Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger shows that Alternative for Germany (AfD) would receive 24 percent in North Rhine-Westphalia if the federal election were held today.

This is two percentage points higher than in April. At the same time, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) drops four points to 22 percent—the lowest level Forsa has recorded for the party in this state. The Greens settle at 18 percent, SPD at 14, and Die Linke at 12, while the FDP falls below the threshold at 3 percent.

North Rhine-Westphalia is Germany’s most populous state and has long been seen as strong territory for the CDU and SPD in the west. The fact that AfD now tops a national poll among voters there marks a clear break from the previous perception of the party as mainly an East German phenomenon.

The state also has a high proportion of residents with an immigrant background and a heavy industry sector that has been burdened by the economic downturn.

CDU Still Leads in the State Election

Forsa also asked about the state election. There, the CDU under Minister-President Hendrik Wüst still leads with 29 percent, while the AfD reaches 22 percent.

However, the lead has shrunk from twelve to seven percentage points since April. About a year ago, the difference was around 22 percentage points.