On election day, the odds point to a paradoxical result. The Social Democrats are tipped to have their worst election ever, while the red-green bloc is still considered likely to become the largest—and Magdalena Andersson remains the favorite to lead the next government. These numbers come from Unibet. Other betting companies have similar odds. Scroll down to vote on which side you think will win the election.

According to the odds, it is more likely that S, V, MP, and C together will secure more parliamentary seats than SD, M, KD, and L. The odds for a red-green advantage at Unibet are at 1.42, compared to 2.70 for the Tidö parties to win the most seats.

This does not mean the formation of a government is a given. The odds suggest it is more likely that the four Tidö parties can form a government—if they gain a majority—than that Magdalena Andersson will be able to assemble her own even if the red-greens become the largest bloc.

The closest red-green government alternative is one including S, C, and MP, with odds at 3.25. The Tidö option stands at 2.80. A four-party government where the Left Party is also included is considered very unlikely and pays nine times the money.

Andersson the Favorite—Despite S Slump

The Social Democrats, Moderates, and Sweden Democrats are all predicted to lose ground compared to the 2022 election. The odds indicate S will end up just below 28 percent.

This would be worse than in 2018, when the party received 28.3 percent—up until then the worst result in its history. Still, Magdalena Andersson remains the favorite to become the next prime minister. The odds are 1.45 for her and 2.50 for Ulf Kristersson.

V and C Tipped as the Election’s Winners

The smaller parties, according to the odds, are moving in the opposite direction. Both the Left Party and the Centre Party are predicted to get over 7.5 percent of the votes. The Liberals look set to clear the four percent threshold with a comfortable margin. Currently, the odds are 1.20 that the party gets at least four percent, versus 4.00 for L to fall out of parliament.

Allard Expected to Stay Outside

The Örebro Party aims to enter parliament via the so-called 12-percent rule—a party that receives at least 12 percent in a single electoral district can gain a seat there, even if it is below 4 percent nationwide. The party has targeted the Örebro County constituency.

The odds are against it. 2.80 for yes and 1.38 for no indicate that Markus Allard will not enter parliament via this route.