It is already a :censored:6:cdd6bbaa89: multibillion-dollar industry and soon a site will open for Swedes. There, instead of betting on sports, horses, and casino games, you can wager on future events such as politics, wars, and disasters.
Users bet money on the probability of what might happen. In addition to betting money, these sites also work as “probability machines” that can serve as sources of information. Since people are wagering money, they make sure they are as well-informed as possible, says Vishal Padwal, one of the founders.
Currently, there are no prediction markets in Sweden, and the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority is discussing how to address these types of platforms.
“We will raise this at the EU level and look forward to that discussion so that we can handle this as efficiently as possible,” says consumer protection economist Moa Langemark at the agency to the national radio.
“There is an ongoing dialogue about new types of phenomena in the financial markets.”
Vishal Padwal believes that the Swedish site will be able to launch soon, and that you will then be able to bet on things like whether there will be snow in Åre next winter.
Today, the crypto-based Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can buy and sell “yes” or “no” shares on the outcome of future events—everything from politics and economics to sports and weather.
The platform works much like a stock exchange for probabilities, where the price of a share represents the market’s estimate of how likely a particular outcome is.
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