The Social Democrats and Left Party have very strong support among voters who state Islam as their religious affiliation. According to previously unpublished figures from Novus, the two parties together receive just over 80 percent. At the same time, support for the Tidö parties is very low.

The Social Democrats receive 61.6 percent and the Left Party 18.7 percent among Muslim respondents in Novus’ voter barometer. Together, this amounts to 80.3 percent support. If the Green Party is included, the three opposition parties reach about 85 percent.

The difference with the government parties is also very large. The Moderates receive 2.1 percent, the Christian Democrats 1.5 percent, and the Liberals only 0.2 percent. In total, these three parties gather just 3.8 percent among the Muslim respondents.

The Sweden Democrats, however, stand out among the Tidö parties, receiving 10.4 percent. The party is thus significantly larger than the Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Liberals combined in this group. It should be noted, however, that the group stating Islam as their religious affiliation constitutes only 2.6 percent of respondents, which means the results should be interpreted with some caution.

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The information was published by Fokus, which had access to previously unpublished figures from Novus.

This strong dominance on the left is not entirely new. In a 2021 report from the Election Research Program at the University of Gothenburg, the Social Democrats received 58.7 percent and the Left Party 8.3 percent among people who themselves identified as Muslims.

The new Novus numbers thus mainly indicate a sharp increase in support for the Left Party compared to the previous survey.

Strong Support for SD

Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson, professor of political science and election researcher at the University of Gothenburg, describes the dominance of the left mainly as something that can be explained by class and socioeconomics rather than religion. However, he reacts to the extent of the dominance in the new survey.

– This is nothing new or strange, he tells Fokus.

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That the Sweden Democrats are so much larger than the other Tidö parties, he says, may seem surprising, but he points out there are foreign-born individuals, many with a Muslim identity, who also do not believe Sweden should increase immigration and who support stricter migration policies.

At the same time, Oscarsson notes that the numbers are higher than previous research has shown. He highlights that socially and economically vulnerable groups have historically tended more to vote for left-wing parties.

Photo: Sweden Democrats

Campaigns in Arabic

The survey comes as Swedish parties intensify the competition for voters with Muslim and foreign backgrounds ahead of the parliamentary election. Parties from both the right and left have, in recent years, sought to reach these voters through multilingual communication and by highlighting Muslim holidays.

Samnytt has in recent weeks pointed out how the Social Democrats and Left Party are campaigning in Arabic and Somali on social media.

The results thus indicate a very clear political divide ahead of the election: while the opposition enjoys very strong support among Muslim respondents, support for the smaller Tidö parties is especially limited. How significant the group will be in the actual election, however, depends not just on party preferences, but also on voter turnout among these voters.

Richard Jomshof (SD) states that continuously adding immigrants benefits left-wing parties:

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