Low birth rates, continued mass immigration, and political measures that, according to critics, aren’t effective. In an interview with Samnytt, Finnish demographic analyst and professor Kyösti Tarvainen warns that Europe’s population development has already passed crucial tipping points—with Sweden as one of the countries where the change, in his view, is happening fastest and is hardest to stop.

The Finnish mathematician and demographic analyst Kyösti Tarvainen, professor emeritus at Aalto University, argues that Europe’s demographic development is already far advanced and, in many ways, irreversible.

In a previous interview with Samnytt, he warned that Sweden, according to his calculations, is heading toward a historic majority shift. Based on birth rates, immigration levels, and differences in fertility between different groups, he claims that the current majority population risks becoming a minority before the end of the century.

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According to Tarvainen, this is not speculation but the consequence of mathematically predictable processes, where demographic inertia means that the development continues even if political actions are taken late in the process.

Yes, that’s true, but the report says it will happen within two years. That’s not true—it will happen in ten years.

Kyösti Tarvainen on European civilization facing collapse

Tarvainen also warns that rapid and extensive demographic changes have historically often led to social unrest and conflicts, especially when political systems have failed to handle them in time.

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He describes Sweden as one of the countries where the pace of change is particularly high and believes that the combination of low native birth rates and continued immigration creates long-term tensions. If the development is ignored, he claims, future generations risk facing conflicts that could have been softened or avoided through earlier political decisions.

He essentially confirms Donald Trump’s warning about Europe’s future, but claims that the timeframes are often misunderstood.

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Donald Trump has warned that Europe is heading toward civilizational destruction. Setting aside the rhetoric, what does demographic mathematics actually say—and is it true?

– Yes, it’s true, but the report says it will happen within two years. That’s not true; it will happen in about ten years.

Tarvainen emphasizes that demographic changes seldom happen suddenly, but they are relentless once they have taken hold.

Is it correct to say that the original European populations in several countries are already in demographic decline?

– Yes, most are. Not Hungary and Poland, but most in Western Europe.

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Sweden – An Extreme Case

When the conversation turns to Sweden, Tarvainen is more specific. According to the forecasts he references, today’s majority population, i.e. Swedes, will become a minority relatively soon.

But it’s not a big problem if the population decreases, as long as it doesn’t happen too quickly. The costs for the child population decrease and resources can be used to care for the elderly. It’s actually a good thing for our countries if the population drops.

Kyösti Tarvainen

What is the situation in Sweden?

– The latest forecast shows that during this century you will be a minority.

At the same time, he argues that a population decrease in itself doesn’t have to be negative, provided it happens slowly and without large external population inflows.

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Is there any historical example of a civilization surviving while combining very low fertility with lasting mass immigration from culturally distant populations?

– This is a new thing, the low birth rate. It hasn’t happened before, it’s a new phenomenon. But we could see it starting to happen 60 years ago. He continues:

– But it’s not a big problem if the population decreases, as long as it doesn’t happen too quickly. The costs for the child population decrease and resources can be used for the elderly. It’s actually a good thing for our countries if the population drops.

Japan is highlighted as an example of a country that has accepted demographic decline without compensating through mass immigration.

Why Are So Few Babies Born in the West?

Tarvainen believes that the reasons for the low birth rate in the West are still not fully understood.

Why don’t people in the Western world have children?

– There are many reasons; we don’t know for sure. Some focus on their own lives, studies, and so on. There’s something strange happening. It might have to do with how we see the idea of the nuclear family, but we don’t know.

A central theme in the interview is Islam and its role in demographic analyses. Tarvainen argues that the issue is not ideological, but mathematical.

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Why does Islam inevitably become relevant in demographic analyses, even when political leaders prefer to avoid the subject?

– An important aspect is that many Muslim families receive money from their home countries so that they can strengthen their positions in the West, through fertility. It’s a mathematical fact that Muslims will become majorities. Also, the more children they have in Sweden, the more money they get from the Swedish state.

They have made a lot of good changes in the law, but overall it has very little effect. I haven’t seen any proposals that would really change this development. The only thing that will work is the forced remigration of Muslims.

Kyösti Tarvainen on the Tidö Government

When asked which countries are most vulnerable, he points to both the United Kingdom and Sweden.

When it comes to demographics in Western Europe, which country is worst affected?

– The United Kingdom will be the first country where the original population becomes a minority. That will happen in about 30 years. He continues:

– But when it comes to Islamization and Muslims, Sweden and France are the worst affected. This has, among other things, been studied by the Pew Institute.

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The Limits of Politics

When it comes to the possibility of reversing the trend, Tarvainen is skeptical about today’s political tools.

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How far has Sweden’s demographic shift already gone—is there still a realistic chance to reverse it?

– I have proposed here in Finland that migration from countries outside the EU be stopped entirely and that Islamists be deported and Islam not be allowed in Finland, so that Muslims return to their home countries. Then the Western population will be stable through internal migration; this applies to Sweden too.

He is also critical of how politicians describe mass migration.

Politicians often describe mass migration as an economic or social “resource.” Do long-term demographic projections support this claim?

– No.

Why do politicians say such things?

– They don’t think carefully. They don’t think things through.

Even the Swedish Tidö government receives criticism. Despite tougher laws, Tarvainen believes the effect is limited.

In Sweden, the Tidö government campaigned on a promise to stop mass immigration, but every year around 100,000 people from the Middle East and Africa still come to Sweden. How do you comment on this?

– They have made a lot of good legal changes, but overall it has very little effect. I haven’t seen any proposals that would really change this trend. The only thing that will work is the forced remigration of Muslims.

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In conclusion, he looks to the future and paints a dramatic scenario if demographic majorities are completely shifted.

If Muslims become a majority in Sweden, will Sweden then become a caliphate?

– In such a situation, it is clear that there will be a military coup by the Swedes. There are many patriotic people in the army.

Tarvainen’s conclusions can be seen as controversial but are consistent. In his reasoning, demography is not a question of values or political will, but of mathematical relationships that operate over time.

Regardless of whether one agrees with his conclusions or not, a central question remains—if the forecasts are correct, how long can politics continue to treat population development as a secondary issue?