Finnish Concerns Over Russian Soldiers Along the Border if Peace Comes to Ukraine

There is concern about what will happen to Finland and the Baltics when the war in Ukraine is over. That’s according to Finland’s Prime Minister Petteri Orpo. And the Finns distrust the Swedes’ ability to help guard the border.

Since summer 2023, Petteri Orpo has been leading a center-right coalition government in Sweden’s eastern neighbor. In an interview with the Financial Times, he is now appealing for help from the other EU countries, if or when Ukraine and Russia reach a peace agreement.

– We know that when there is peace in Ukraine, Russia will still be the threat. Obviously, they will move their military forces closer to our border and closer to the border with the Baltic states, says Orpo.

Rearming

After the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Finland, like several other European countries, has increased its defense spending. Significantly. This year, the country is investing about 2.5 percent of its gross domestic product in its armed forces.

This is a record level for Finland. The Nordic country hasn’t built up its military this much since World War II. During the days of the Cold War, Finland had, compared to Sweden, a rather modest defense budget. Defense appropriations were about half as large as a percentage of GDP, for a considerably smaller economy.

Instead, the Finns relied on the so-called Paasikivi Doctrine; with friendship, cooperation, and a promise of military assistance from the government in Moscow. The VSB Agreement, as it was called, thus resulted in a relatively small military.

But that era is over. The cooperation the Finns entered into with Stalin cannot be found with Putin. That’s why the Finns are now fully rearming.

Hoping for Russian Assets

For example, Finland is currently building an entirely new class of corvettes for its navy, and together with countries such as Sweden, has decided to purchase hundreds of new CV90 combat vehicles.

The by far most expensive investment, however, is the acquisition of 64 new F-35 fighter aircraft, which are being purchased from the USA. The high-tech stealth fighter comes at a purchase cost of more than 90 billion SEK.

Finnish F-18 and F-35. Photo: Finnish Air Force press image

The Finns are thus buying weapons worth many billions. Money the country feels it doesn’t really have.

This is why Finland is also hoping for the Russian assets frozen by the EU. The Finnish Prime Minister wants those Russian funds to go to EU countries bordering Russia, to help them build up their defense.

– Our economy is currently in a very poor state. That’s because of the threat from Russia. The atmosphere in Finland is very tough, says Petteri Orpo.

Finns Distrust Swedish Military Capability

NATO countries together have a land border with Russia just over 250 miles long. More than half of that border is the Finnish-Russian border.

And if Russia attacks Finland, Swedish soldiers are supposed to be among the first to help defend the Finnish border. Starting next year, a Sweden-led battlegroup will in fact be stationed in Rovaniemi, Finland, as part of NATO cooperation.

But in Finland, there’s distrust regarding Swedish combat capability. On Tuesday, the cooperation and cultural center Hanaholmen published the Sweden-Finland Barometer.

According to that barometer, only 20 percent of Finns fully or partially agree with the statement, “Sweden appears as a country with strong military defense.” More than half instead hold the opposite view and believe the western neighbor has weak defenses.

By comparison, a full 70 percent of Swedes perceive Finland as a country with strong military defenses. Very few Swedes consider Finland to be poorly equipped.