DEBATE • When the Tidö coalition took office, they promised a “paradigm shift” in migration policy: stricter rules, fewer asylum immigrants and increased return migration. Yet fresh statistics from the Swedish Migration Agency show that reality is as it has always been—a policy marked by compromises, symbolic measures, and lack of results. For example, voluntary return migration has turned out to be a total failure. Exactly as we at Heimr predicted in our report “Return Migration is Inevitable” from 2025.

In the report, we stated: “The Tidö coalition’s proposal for voluntary return migration is expected to have a very limited effect.” We were right. Now the numbers prove it. According to the Migration Agency’s statistics on return migration grants for 2026, there have so far been 504 applications submitted during the first three months of the year. Of the 206 cases decided, only 6 have been approved. 167 have been rejected, and the rest have been closed or dismissed. That is an approval rate of a mere three percent. For Syrians, who dominate the applications (295 out of 504 submitted), the effect is virtually nonexistent. This, despite the government raising the grant to up to 350,000 SEK per adult.

Ludvig Aspling (SD), the Sweden Democrats’ migration policy spokesperson, was more optimistic. He believed the inquiry underestimated the effect and predicted up to 4,000 returnees per year. Reality speaks for itself: at that rate, we would already have seen hundreds of approved applications by now. Instead, we see a policy not even close to the study’s own modest forecast of about 1,300 per year.

The investigator Joakim Ruist was clear-sighted enough to see the problem. He emphasized that effective methods for voluntary return migration to lead to substantial numbers are hard to identify. Ruist studied Denmark, Norway, and Germany and saw only marginal effects. Voluntariness does not work for those who do not want to leave Sweden. Migrants who burden society choose to stay. The grant becomes in practice a bonus rather than a guarantee for return: you take the money, keep your residence permit, and can come back later. Abuse is built in.

Meanwhile, population replacement continues through, among other things, asylum immigration. According to the Migration Agency’s asylum statistics, over 1,100 asylum applications have been submitted during the first months of 2026, with hundreds granted residence permits. No asylum stop and no mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Paradigm shift? It’s a lie. The Tidö coalition has chosen to prioritize compromise over the best interests of Swedes. The Sweden Democrats managed to secure a higher grant, but without the compulsory measures Heimr advocates—revocation of citizenship for migrants who burden society, agreements with third countries, and forced deportations—there will be no real change.

Voluntary return migration is a complete flop that shows we cannot settle for symbolic politics. No real paradigm shift has occurred—mass immigration and population replacement continue. What we need is a progressive return migration policy: large-scale, legally secure, and effective. We Swedes have the right to a safe, homogeneous, and prosperous country where welfare is for ourselves.

Andreas Feymark
Founder, Think Tank Heimr

Jeff Ahl
Chairman, Think Tank Heimr