Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking re-election, while his main challenger is Flávio Bolsonaro, eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The father is serving a long prison sentence after being convicted for his role in the coup attempt following the 2022 election and has been under house arrest for health reasons since this spring. According to information from the Brazilian judiciary, there is a risk that Jair Bolsonaro will seek political asylum in the USA with President Donald Trump.
The election campaign has essentially turned into a duel between Lula and the Bolsonaro family. But this time, Jair Bolsonaro is not on the ballot.
The Supreme Court sentenced him in September 2025 to 27 years and three months for having led a conspiracy aimed at preventing Lula from taking office after the 2022 defeat. The sentence began to be enforced in November 2025, first in police custody and, from March 2026, under house arrest.
The verdict has been described by Bolsonaro supporters and other critics as politically motivated. Flávio Bolsonaro has said that, if he becomes president, he wants to push through a broad amnesty that would also include his father.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a senator for Rio de Janeiro for the Liberal Party (PL) and has his father’s explicit support. Lula, 80, is running for a fourth presidential term in total.
Lula has a long and controversial political history behind him. He was previously sentenced to prison for corruption offenses and was detained before the convictions were later overturned by Brazil’s Supreme Court due to procedural errors. After his release, Lula returned to politics and won the 2022 presidential election.
Close Numbers in Brazil
According to the polling institute Datafolha, in a survey published on October 1, Lula receives 42 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro 38 percent in the first round. In a potential second-round scenario, the figures are 48–45 in favor of Lula, which is within the margin of error of two percentage points.
On the betting market Polymarket, the picture is different. In the days leading up to the election, Flávio Bolsonaro’s chances of victory were traded at around 58–59 percent, while Lula was at about 42 percent.
The market weighs in the entire election process, including a possible second round, and thus differs from the snapshot provided by opinion polls.
Two Rounds
About 160 million eligible voters will choose the president, vice president, governors, senators, and members of Congress. Lula has governed the country since 2023 and is campaigning on his usual socialist platform.
The conservative candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, on the other hand, has profiled himself with a tougher stance on crime policy, criticism of the judiciary, and a right-leaning economic policy. This aligns with the political movement that propelled his father.
The first round of the election is tomorrow, Sunday, October 4. If no absolute majority is achieved, a second round will be held on October 25.