Germany’s next chancellor could be Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). In contrast to his predecessor Angela Merkel, Merz wants to significantly tighten immigration to the country. To achieve this, he is willing to break down the ‘brandmauer’ – the firewall against the nation-friendly Alternative for Germany (AfD) and cooperate with the party, which has recently surged in the polls and is now positioned as Germany’s second largest and largest party.

Similar to the situation in Sweden, where the other parties agreed not to ‘touch the Sweden Democrats with a ten-foot pole’, the parties in Germany have united around what they call a ‘brandmauer’ – a firewall against the national conservative AfD. However, the controversial party has now grown so strong that it can no longer be ignored.

Attempts are now being made, including by the Social Democrats in Germany, to ban AfD. This is based on the argument that the party’s policies would ‘violate the free, democratic basic order of the state’. Faced with the prospect of this failing, other parties are beginning to position themselves to instead cooperate with AfD.

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Similar to Sweden, the Christian Democrats are the first to break the taboo and signal political cooperation with the country’s major nation-friendly party. Specifically, it is CDU’s leader Friedrich Merz who is reaching out to AfD.

Positioning for significantly reduced immigration

How such cooperation would take shape more concretely is still unclear. Initially, Merz’s ambition is to push through laws to significantly reduce immigration, for which he wants to gain parliamentary majority support in the Bundestag with the help of AfD.

Olaf Kosinsky

The fact that Merz, just a few weeks before the parliamentary elections, is open to breaking down the firewall against the major nation-friendly party is not viewed favorably from the political left. They argue that the CDU leader is ‘breaking Germany’s post-war quarantine of the extreme right’.

AfD second largest, party leader Alice Weidel largest

In opinion polls, AfD has positioned itself as Germany’s second largest party after CDU. According to a recent poll, there are even more voters (24 percent) who want to see the leader of the nation-friendly party, Alice Weidel, as the country’s new chancellor than those (20 percent) who want to see Friedrich Merz in the position.

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The opening towards AfD is interpreted as an attempt to win back voters that CDU has lost to AfD. Whether it will succeed remains to be seen after February 23, when the German people go to the polls in the snap election called after the current red-green and light-blue government collapsed in internal disputes.

In Sweden ‘blue-brown’, in Germany ‘black-blue’

In Sweden, the Tidö government has been called ‘blue-brown’ by its political opponents. In Germany, outgoing Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz similarly refers to a government cooperation between CDU and AfD as ‘black-blue’.

Several controversial legislative proposals are on the agenda that Merz is prepared to push through in parliament with AfD’s support. The most far-reaching concerns issuing rejections for all asylum seekers arriving at Germany’s borders and indefinite detention for individuals who are denied asylum and must leave the country but cannot be deported or refuse to leave voluntarily.

Brutal immigrant violence affects public opinion

CDU’s turnaround partly comes in the wake of a series of high-profile brutal acts of violence that have shaken the country, with migrants as perpetrators. These events have boosted AfD’s popularity.

Merz has previously directed harsh criticism at AfD but now says that he does not understand why the SPD and the Greens ‘cannot come on board when we are facing such a threat to domestic security and order in our country’. These parties must ask themselves whether they want to get migration to Germany under control or not, he argues.

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