How Swedes Feel About NATO Membership

Swedes’ attitude towards membership in NATO has dramatically changed in a short period of time with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as a milestone. The war is still ongoing, and the increased support for Swedish NATO membership persists.

Sweden’s shift from 200 years of neutrality to full membership in the U.S.-led military alliance NATO happened at record speed. Many thought it was too fast, as the issue was hardly debated, and the historical and defense policy-changing decision was made over the heads of the Swedish people.

A referendum would likely have resulted in a clear majority in favor. This contrasts with a few years earlier when only three out of ten thought it was a good idea to seek NATO membership.

The overwhelmingly dominant reason for the Swedes’ rapidly changed attitude is the threat to Sweden posed by Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin. This comes after the Russian military invasion of the eastern parts of the neighboring country and former Soviet state, Ukraine.

Six out of ten Swedes positive

The war of attrition in Ukraine, likened to a “meat grinder,” continues after almost three years, with an estimated one million dead or injured and extensive material destruction. More people today advocate for peace negotiations between the parties rather than continued war, but Swedes’ attitude towards NATO membership has not become more ambivalent in the same way – six out of ten are still positive.

However, nearly four out of ten Swedes are still negative or hesitant about Sweden’s NATO membership. More women than men are critical, as are more on the political left than right. This is according to a survey by Ipsos commissioned by Dagens Nyheter.

Soldier saluting the U.S. ship USS Kearsage. Photo: Swedish Armed Forces

Dip in confidence in Swedish defense capability

Another turnaround is that after decades of dismantling the defense, Sweden has started to rebuild it. However, despite NATO membership, still nearly one-third of Swedes do not believe that we can defend against, for example, a Russian invasion.

The pessimists have even increased slightly, but are still significantly fewer than almost ten years ago when only one in ten Swedes believed that Sweden had any defense capability worth mentioning. A similar difference in attitude between right- and left-wing voters as for NATO membership is also evident here.

Ipsos opinion analyst Nicklas Källebring speculates in a comment to DN that the re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president may have made Swedes more hesitant about Sweden’s defense capability. Trump has demanded that the other NATO countries start pulling their weight to a greater extent than before, instead of hitching a ride on the U.S.