The record years for deadly gang violence related to immigrants have been stacking up for some time. The last two years have seen marginally lower numbers for fatal shootings and bombings. Experts hope that this represents a turning point and also speculate that the gang criminals have become fatigued, causing them to not have the energy to shoot each other as often.

In 2022, 62 people were killed in immigrant criminal gang shootings, on average just over one murder per week. Additionally, 107 people were hit by bullets in gang confrontations but survived, and the police also noted 391 gang-related shootings without injuries.

The death toll that year was an all-time high but had been preceded by a long series of years of escalating gang criminal violence. In 2023, the number of fatal shootings decreased slightly, and the figures for 2024 are even lower. Experts now hope that the peak of an upward trend has been surpassed and replaced by a downward trend.

Criminologist praises own authority

One of the hopeful individuals is the Police Authority’s criminologist Sven Granath. At the risk of appearing biased, he praises the police force as the main reason for the presumed turning point. It is “traditional police methods that have been sharpened“, he says.

He does not believe that the political parties’ competition to announce tougher laws and harsher penalties has had any effect, at least not yet. This is with the exception of the new tools that his colleagues at the Police Authority have received, such as more liberal rules for covert surveillance.

Too tired to bother killing each other

However, Granath believes that many gang criminals may have succumbed to exhaustion syndrome – they are simply too tired – mentally or in their trigger finger – to bother shooting each other to the same extent as a few years ago.

“There is probably fatigue in the environment,” he speculates in an interview with DN.

Up to one gang murder per week, nearly 300 gang shootings in total, and well over 100 bombings, as noted for 2024, are still high figures. There is little evidence to suggest that they are on the verge of “breaking the gangs” or undergoing a criminal policy “paradigm shift” as the previous and current governments have announced.

READ MORE articles on Samnytt about gang shootings HERE

Youth and competence of contract killers

Another factor that Granath believes has influenced the death and injury rates in the immigrant criminal environments is that contracts are now being awarded to minors with lower levels of violence competence, resulting in decreased quality. They simply fail more often.

“It is probably because it is carried out by younger, less competent individuals,” he says.

This has occurred because the gangs have increasingly begun to exploit how the legislation is structured, where young murderers and perpetrators of violence receive extremely lenient sentences or no sentences at all if caught. The pressure on non-punishable individuals to commit a murder as an initiation rite into the gang environment has intensified.

Preventing one murder often prevents several

Granath’s speculations are supported by Manne Gerell, a criminology lecturer at Malmö University who considers himself an expert on gang-related crime in immigrant communities – the police should be credited for the decrease in deadly violence.

He also points out that a murder often results in a retaliatory murder, which then results in another retaliatory murder, and so on in an accelerating vicious vendetta circle. If the police prevent a murder, they have indirectly often prevented several.

“We know that the risk of more violence increases about four times after a shooting,” he tells DN.

Satisfied if death tolls remain at current levels

However, Gerell is not as optimistic that the downward figures of the past two years should be interpreted as a turning point in the sense that fatal shootings will now continue to decrease towards zero. He believes that they should be satisfied if they can maintain the level of deaths in 2024, but it may decrease slightly or increase slightly.

May be a sign that things are going well for the gangs

One thing that neither of the two criminologists mention is that the absence of shootings and bombings may be a sign that things are going well for the gang criminals. Being at war with each other, having their leaders murdered or imprisoned disrupts drug and fraud operations.

It steals time and resources from criminal activities. Superficially, it may seem that society has begun to push back against the criminal immigrant gangs as the death toll decreases. In reality, it may be the case that criminal activities are flourishing as never before.

ALSO READ: Ekeroth: “When there are no shootings, things are going well for the gangs”