Swedish Power Bills Up 73 Percent - Energy Giant Blames Weak Wind

SWEDEN - Homeowners in southern Sweden could pay almost 30,000 kronor (about 2,700 dollars) this winter just for the electricity itself. That is more than during the energy crisis three years ago.

And the power company points to one culprit in particular: there is not enough wind.

In its updated winter forecast, energy giant E.ON estimates that a house in price zone 4 using 20,000 kilowatt-hours a year will pay about 29,800 kronor for power between October and March.

That is around 12,600 kronor, or 73 percent, more than last winter. Zone 4 covers Skåne, Blekinge and parts of Småland and Halland, and it is the only area where bills are expected to top the crisis winter of 2022/23 - by about 20 percent.

Grid fees and energy tax come on top. Households on a fixed price are not affected by the spot price surge.

On Monday the spot price in southern Sweden peaked at 9.38 kronor per kilowatt-hour including VAT.

Green transition - now the wind gets the blame

E.ON points to weak wind production in northern Europe, limited nuclear power and bottlenecks in the grid. That leaves southern Sweden exposed to high prices on the continent, where gas sets the price.

"A mild and windy winter can dampen prices, while cold periods with little wind can push them up," said the company's price expert Anna Rylander.

In other words, the power company itself is pointing to the weak spot in the green transition. Wind output depends on the weather. Cold high-pressure systems bring weak winds - exactly when the cold drives up demand.

That is why the national grid operator, Svenska kraftnät, counts on only 9 percent of installed wind capacity during the most strained hour of the winter.

Sweden has more than 18,600 megawatts of wind power installed. For Wednesday, the grid operator forecasts that all Swedish wind turbines together will produce between 1,000 and 3,100 megawatts.

The nuclear power in the south is gone

Meanwhile, southern Sweden has got rid of much of its controllable power. Barsebäck in Skåne was shut in 1999 and 2005, and Ringhals 1 and 2 in Halland were closed in 2019 and 2020.

This winter zone 4 has only about 2,200 megawatts available at peak, against demand of 4,400 megawatts. The rest has to come from northern Sweden or be imported.

On top of that, Ringhals 3 and 4 are currently offline for maintenance and are not expected back until 27 and 20 November.

The government's high-cost protection gives a family in a house around a hundred kronor for October. After New Year, it disappears altogether.

And it is still only autumn. The grid operator rates the risk of an actual power shortage as low - but says the risk of periods with very high prices remains significant, with hydro reservoirs running low.